Oakland Raiders (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date/Time: 4:05 PM ET, October 28, 2012
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oak +2 / KC -2
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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The Oakland Raiders are coming off a win and even at 2-4 they are only 1 game out of first place in the AFC West with the Chargers and Broncos at 3-3. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 3 straight and their offense has really struggled in the last few games, which is why they are going with Brady Quinn to take over for Matt Cassel at the QB position. Something has got to give in this game, as the Raiders are 0-3 on the road and the Chiefs are 0-3 at home.
In their last games the Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 26-23 in OT while the Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-10. At least the Chiefs will be well-rested for this game since they are coming off a bye week.
The Chiefs turn the reigns to Brady Quinn, who has 212 passing yards with 0 TD and 2 INT this season. He has one great WR in Dwayne Bowe, but other than that the Chiefs are thin outside, as the next leading WR is Jon Baldwin with only 13 catches for 193 yards. Quinn will be facing an Oakland pass defense that only ranks 22nd in the league and while he will not have a big game in terms of numbers he will have a solid first start. At least Quinn will be facing one of the worst pass rushed in the league with the Raiders only having 7 sacks on the season.
It is no secret that the key to the Chiefs winning this division match up is the play of RB Jamaal Charles. He will get a ton of touches in this game and he will rush for over 100 yards even though the Raiders have a decent run defense ranked 13th in the league.
It is vital that the Chiefs get off to a good start, as if they get down it means Charles will not see the ball as much and Quinn will have to air it out to a less than stellar WR corps.
Carson Palmer has passed for over 650 yards in his last 2 games, but in that span he only has 2 TD as opposed to 2 INT. Brandon Myers and Denarius Moore are a couple of young and speedy WR's and each has over 320 receiving yards. Palmer will have another good game mainly because he will have time in the pocket facing a KC pass rush that only ranks 18th in the league in sacks.
After having a great game against the Falcons a couple of weeks back Oakland RB Darren McFadden was decent in the win over the Jags with 53 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards. He is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season, but expect that to go up in this game facing a struggling Chiefs' run defense. Look for McFadden to have another big game and like Charles he will get a lot of touches.
Both teams have struggled this season, but each still has a shot at the playoffs. The Raiders only trail the Broncos and Chargers by 1 game in the AFC West while the Chiefs are only 2 back.
The Raiders have only covered the spread in 2 of their last 7 games and they have an Over record of 9-4 in their last 13 games. The Chiefs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record and in their last 10 home games the posted total has gone Under 8 times. In an interesting betting trend the Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games facing the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Vegas doesn't know who's going to win this game and neither do I. Both of these teams have showed promise and times and absolute doom as well. I'm leaning towards the Chiefs because Arrowhead is a tough place for road teams to come into and I believe Quinn is an upgrade over Cassel. QB play may not matter here though as I expect a huge dose of Jamaal Charles. There are better games on the Week 8 NFL card, but if you have to bet it, the Chiefs are who I recommend.
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