Oakland Raiders (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date/Time: 4:05 PM ET, October 28, 2012
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oak +2 / KC -2
Over/Under Total: 41.5
Bet the Raidas/Chiefs game at an online betting site where your Visa card WILL work for depositing and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus: Bovada.
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a win and even at 2-4 they are only 1 game out of first place in the AFC West with the Chargers and Broncos at 3-3. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 3 straight and their offense has really struggled in the last few games, which is why they are going with Brady Quinn to take over for Matt Cassel at the QB position. Something has got to give in this game, as the Raiders are 0-3 on the road and the Chiefs are 0-3 at home.
In their last games the Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 26-23 in OT while the Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-10. At least the Chiefs will be well-rested for this game since they are coming off a bye week.
The Chiefs turn the reigns to Brady Quinn, who has 212 passing yards with 0 TD and 2 INT this season. He has one great WR in Dwayne Bowe, but other than that the Chiefs are thin outside, as the next leading WR is Jon Baldwin with only 13 catches for 193 yards. Quinn will be facing an Oakland pass defense that only ranks 22nd in the league and while he will not have a big game in terms of numbers he will have a solid first start. At least Quinn will be facing one of the worst pass rushed in the league with the Raiders only having 7 sacks on the season.
It is no secret that the key to the Chiefs winning this division match up is the play of RB Jamaal Charles. He will get a ton of touches in this game and he will rush for over 100 yards even though the Raiders have a decent run defense ranked 13th in the league.
It is vital that the Chiefs get off to a good start, as if they get down it means Charles will not see the ball as much and Quinn will have to air it out to a less than stellar WR corps.
Carson Palmer has passed for over 650 yards in his last 2 games, but in that span he only has 2 TD as opposed to 2 INT. Brandon Myers and Denarius Moore are a couple of young and speedy WR's and each has over 320 receiving yards. Palmer will have another good game mainly because he will have time in the pocket facing a KC pass rush that only ranks 18th in the league in sacks.
After having a great game against the Falcons a couple of weeks back Oakland RB Darren McFadden was decent in the win over the Jags with 53 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards. He is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season, but expect that to go up in this game facing a struggling Chiefs' run defense. Look for McFadden to have another big game and like Charles he will get a lot of touches.
Both teams have struggled this season, but each still has a shot at the playoffs. The Raiders only trail the Broncos and Chargers by 1 game in the AFC West while the Chiefs are only 2 back.
The Raiders have only covered the spread in 2 of their last 7 games and they have an Over record of 9-4 in their last 13 games. The Chiefs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record and in their last 10 home games the posted total has gone Under 8 times. In an interesting betting trend the Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games facing the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Vegas doesn't know who's going to win this game and neither do I. Both of these teams have showed promise and times and absolute doom as well. I'm leaning towards the Chiefs because Arrowhead is a tough place for road teams to come into and I believe Quinn is an upgrade over Cassel. QB play may not matter here though as I expect a huge dose of Jamaal Charles. There are better games on the Week 8 NFL card, but if you have to bet it, the Chiefs are who I recommend.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVIII. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd, 2014.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.