Oakland Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, NFL Week 10, Thursday, November 10, 2011, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California, TV: NFL
by Scotty L, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oak +7/SD -7
Over/Under Total: 48
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On Thursday, the San Diego Chargers host the Oakland Raiders in a key AFC West matchup at Qualcomm Stadium. Both teams not only lost last week, but have dropped a combined 5 straight. But in an AFC West division without a hot team, they are both tied for first. Despite that, both squads will be trying to right the ship after what seemed like a promising beginning to the season.
But even at 4-1, the Chargers weren’t looking that great and have really been struggling in losing 3 straight. This team is clearly not getting the most out of their guys, with mistakes threatening to soil another season of football. One could be an optimist and praise the Chargers for coming back against the unbeaten Packers on Sunday to set up a possible game-tying final drive. There are certainly a lot of teams who haven’t even managed to be that competitive with Green Bay.
At the same time, QB Philip Rivers continued to not take care of the ball, penalties cost them at the most inopportune time, and they didn’t cover the spread for the 6th time in 8 games this season. In addition, when it comes to final drives, this team seems to deliver the most anticlimactic finishes possible--usually sputtering to end the game. But again, the Packers have won 14 straight games dating back to last season, so one can only be so hard on San Diego.
In retrospect, maybe losing Jason Campbell wasn’t a good thing for the Raiders. New quarterback Carson Palmer may prove to be a more effective field general, but this transition period has threatened to remove Oakland as a playoff contender. At 4-2, they were looking good, with McFadden getting into gear and Campbell playing well. Ragged QB play in Campbell’s absence contributed to a stymying 28-0 home loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders looked to benefit from a bye-week, but then lost 38-24 at home to the Broncos. Maligned QB Tim Tebow had a big game and the Raiders now look to regroup.
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When the dust settles after this week’s demoralizing defeats, each team should realize 4-4 is not the end of the world and being tied for the division lead is not such a bad spot in which to be. In other words, don’t look for either squad to be too down in the dumps. This season still offers promise. A lot of pride is always on the line in this typically-hostile matchup. Maybe a heated division game is just what these two teams need in order to refocus.
If you watch the Chargers week after week, you keep expecting them to explode, but they never do. It can be frustrating to fans and costly to bettors who continue to hope for what seems inevitable, but is never forthcoming. And frankly, the more Philip Rivers continues to suffer, the less likely it seems that they will ever completely “put it together.” 4 touchdowns brought his anemic (for him) season total up to 11, but 3 more picks pushed that number up to 14. Whereas some of his early picks were results of happenstance perhaps, it now seems that Rivers is really struggling. While he was great in bringing the Chargers back late on Sunday, those picks cost his team dearly.
In 8 games, Rivers has thrown 2 or more picks 6 times. He’s averaging 300 yards per game in the air, but turnovers and penalties have seriously cut into that production. But against a dicey Oakland secondary and a porous run “D,” can Rivers and surging RB Michael Tolbert get cooking?
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Raiders’ QB Carson Palmer threw for 332 yards on Sunday, but was barely over 50% and threw 3 picks. He already has 6 interceptions in 56 throws, but look for his form to improve as he finds his bearings. It’s just that you’d like to see a healthy Darren McFadden in there, who didn’t play on Sunday as is still ailing from a hurt foot.
Against a more one-dimensional Oakland offense, look for the Chargers “D” to have a good game at home in a must-win situation, while the Chargers offense puts up enough points for a cover. Take the San Diego Chargers minus minus the points.
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