Green Bay Packers (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Monday, November 28, 2016 at 8:30 PM EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field
TV: ESPN, DTV: 206
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:GB +4/PHI -4
Over/Under Total: 47.5
If you look at their league rankings, which Iíll do below, the Green Bay Packers should be much better than 4-6. In reality, Aaron Rodgers hasnít been himself and the Packers defense, which has no depth, has been depleted by injury. Meanwhile, their opponents this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, have dropped five of their last seven games after rookie QB Carson Wentzís hot start cooling off considerably.
The Packers enter Week 12 with the 13th-ranked offense averaging 362.7 total yard per game (YPG) and 24.7 points per game (PPG). Their passing game is 10th in league averaging 262.1 YPG, while their rushing game is 19th averaging 100.6 YPG. Defensively, the Packers allow an average of 356.7 total YPG (265.6 passing YPG and 91.1 rushing YPG) and 27.6 PPG, which puts them 18th.
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As for the Eagles, their offense is ranked 19th averaging 340.4 total YPG and 24.1 PPG. Their passing game is just 25th averaging 222.1 YPG, while their rushing game is a lot better at 6th averaging 118.3 YPG. Defensively, the Eagles are a solid 8th holding opponents to an average of 334.6 total YPG (228.9 passing YPG and 105.7 rushing YPG) and 18.6 PPG.
Entering Week 12, Rodgers has completed 259 of 410 passes for 2,761 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, which gives him a 96 passer rating. Those numbers donít seem bad on the face, but they are a bit misleading as they suggest consistency. Whatís really happening is more of a series of hot-or-cold games. Either Rodgers is on playing like the days of old, or heís not and struggles to put points on the board. It seems to be a lot more of the latter as of late.
Chad Holloway's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Technically both of these teams are alive in the Playoff hunt, but theyíre quickly falling out of the race. Whichever team loses on Monday night might as well turn their attention to next season, and I think that team will be the Packers. The team has been riddled with injury, Rodgers is stagnant (are the reports true that heís cut off his family? If so, hard not to let stuff like that impact you professionally), and theyíre on the road this week.
I look for the Eagles to get the job done at home while covering the spread. Wentz isnít going to light it up, but heís primed to have his best game in a while (the Packers defense is that bad and only getting worse), while both Ryan Mathews ad Darren Sproles should chew up some yardage on the ground. Regarding the over/under, I look for both team to combine for enough to cover the over.
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