Philadelphia Eagles (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, Week 16 NFL, Saturday, December 24, 2011, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas, TV: FOX
by Badger, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Phil. +2/DAL -2
Over/Under Total: 50.5
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The Philadelphia Eagles appear to be relishing the role of spoiler down the stretch, and this week they’ll get another chance to try and wreck someone’s playoff dreams when they travel to Cowboys Stadium to play the Dallas Cowboys in a crucial NFC East clash on Christmas Eve this Saturday.
The Eagles have won two in a row for the first time since October, including last week’s 45-19 dismantling of the playoff-hopeful New York Jets. The Philly defense continued their end of the year surge by sparking the win over the Jets with a fumble recovery return for a touchdown to start the scoring barrage along with four sacks, four forced turnovers and just 13 first downs allowed in the victory.
The next target for the Philly defense will be the Dallas Cowboys, who following their, 31-15, win over Tampa Bay last Thursday and a loss by the New York Giants last Sunday are back at the top of the NFC East standings. Quarterback Tony Romo threw three touchdown passes and added a 1-yard plunge just before half in the Cowboys win over the Bucs, getting hot just in time for the Cowboys two biggest games of the season.
Dallas needs to win this week’s showdown against the rival Eagles at home in Cowboys Stadium in order to set up a winner-take-all NFC East matchup against the Giants next week on the road, setting the stage for the Eagles to spoil the holiday plans of Cowboys fans everywhere if they can pull of the upset.
But depending on which sportsbook or bookie you are wagering with, just how big of an upset the Eagles may spring is in question. Oddsmakers originally set the opening point spread with Dallas as the standard 3-point favorite at home. But sportsbooks all over the Web and in Las Vegas have been dropping the number ever since, with it down to Cowboys minus -2 at most books and even as low as minus -1 at some offshore sportsbooks that have seen heavy action on the Eagles.
The over/under total opened at 50.5 and has not seen the big line movement like there has been on the point spread.
The two offenses in this game are both very dangerous, but they’re both very unpredictable as well, which makes this game an interesting one to handicap.
Dallas was clearly at the top of its game last week against Tampa Bay, rolling up a 28-0 first half lead and gaining 28 first downs to make the offense look like the Cowboy offenses of the past. Romo is performing at a high level down the stretch (18 TD – 2 INT in last seven games), running back Felix Jones is reeling off 100-yard games and the offensive line appears to have finally gelled together after numerous injuries at mid-season … all just in time for a playoff and NFC East title push.
But they’ll be facing an Eagles defense that is also red hot. After spending most of the early season being taking to task for being soft, leaderless, overpaid and over hyped, the Eagles defense has responded in a big way the past two weeks with 13 sacks and seven forced turnovers.
The Eagles offense has been the main beneficiary of the new-found defensive prowess, getting prime field position as a result that has help them to two lopsided victories even though the offense itself is only averaging 330 yards a game and is still turning the ball over way to much (6 in two wins).
Vick is still not 100 percent healthy, but he’s helped to stabilize the Eagle offense in recent weeks. Running back LeSean McCoy is coming off a three-touchdown game versus the Jets, DeSean Jackson appears to be happy again and coach Andy Reid has rediscovered that run-pass balance (55 runs – 52 passes last two weeks) is the best medicine for an ailing offense.
Philly will face a Dallas defense determined to redeem itself after getting torched, used and abused in the Eagles, 34-7, win over the Cowboys on Monday Night Football back in October. The Cowboys have won five of seven games since that dud on MNF, and the defense allowing just 19 points per game since then is a big reason why.
Dallas has won four of the last six meetings between these two, including the Eagles win earlier this season. The Cowboys are 3-1 SU against Philly at home since 2008, but the lone loss was last season in the first year of the new Cowboys Stadium, so the Cowboys have yet to defend their new home turf against the rival Eagles.
There aren’t many betting trends in this game that will make you drop everything and run to the betting window, but the Eagles are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 road games versus a winning team. The Cowboys are also a dismal 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games as the home favorite, so if you’re a trend player you will probably be on the Eagles.
The under is also a solid trend wager, going 5-0 in the Eagles last five versus the NFC East and 7-3 in the Cowboys last 10 games overall.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The public is in love with the Eagles this week. My wallet is in love with the Cowboys. Take Dallas minus the points and I'll see you at the cashiers cage when it's over!
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