Philadelphia Eagles (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. New York Giants (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Week 11 NFL, Sunday, November 20, 2011, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., TV: NBC
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Philly +5/NYG -5
Over/Under Total: 47
Bet the Phil/NY game using your credit card at a sportsbook that CAN and WILL get it to work for deposits: BetOnline.
If the Philadelphia Eagles are going to salvage what’s left of their sinking 2011 season it will have to start with a must-win game against the NFC East rival New York Giants this weekend at MetLife Stadium on Sunday Night Football in America.
Making matters worse for the Eagles is the uncertainty of starting quarterback Michael Vick for Sunday night’s showdown, as Vick has two cracked ribs and has yet to practice this week and is listed as doubtful on the Eagles injury list released earlier in the week.
Vick cracked his ribs in the Eagles stunning, 21-17, loss at home in the Linc last Sunday. Not only did the Cardinals keep the Eagles offense under control in the game (only 289 yards of total offense), but they beat Philly with backup quarterback John Skelton running the offense and calling the shots on the Cards game-winning drive in the final two minutes of the game.
It was the second straight game the Eagles lost at home, dropping a chance to make up ground in the NFC East race before spending three of the next four weeks on the road.
The New York Giants, who are a game ahead of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East title race, will have a chance to put the dagger in the Eagles in front of the national television audience Sunday Night. Although they too are coming off a blown opportunity to gain more ground in the division when they lost to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday on the left coast, 27-20.
San Francisco held a 10-minute time of possession advantage and forced quarterback Eli Manning into two more interceptions in the loss, which snapped a three-game win streak for the Giants. Despite those issues the Giants had their chances, they just didn’t convert on their opportunities going 1-for-4 in their red zone possessions.
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Something will have to give this week since both teams can’t give away the game, setting the stage for a dramatic contest that will have major impact on the NFC East and NFC title hunts.
Even though there was uncertainty over whether or not Vick will be playing, it didn’t stop the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas from setting the opening point spread with the Giants as 3.5-point favorites at home. But once it became common knowledge that Vick was hurt, and once the sharp bettors hammered the early line at the window, the spread has shot up at a lot of sportsbooks to list the Giants as minus -4.5 or even minus -5-point favorites currently.
The over/under total opened at 47 and has moved the hook down to 46.5, or up the hook to 47.5 depending on where you book your bets. There are still plenty of sports books sitting right at 47 still too, so you can manipulate the total a full point if you so choose by looking at different books right now.
If Vick is unable to go come Sunday night the job of quarterback for the Eagles will be placed in the hands of Vince Young. Young has yet to take a snap as an Eagle, but his days with the Titans were filled with inconsistency and plenty of questions, which is the main reason he’s Vicks backup to begin with and not a starter somewhere else in the league.
But regardless of who is at quarterback, will it even matter? With receiver DeSean Jackson suspended for missing meetings and still in the doghouse, and No. 2 receiver Jeremy Maclin suffering from shoulder and hamstring injuries, there’s nobody on the outside for the QB to throw it to. Left guard King Dunlap is also questionable for the game with a concussion, so the injuries are starting to mount for the Eagles along the line and out on the perimeter.
Running back LeSean McCoy has been the Eagles best and most consistent performer every week, but with the Giants loading the box to take him away and to shore up their weak run defense (allowing 121 ypg rushing – 20th), it could be hard for the Eagles to give it to him 30 times a game and still expect to win. Plus, you and I both know that Andy Reid would never call more running plays than passing plays in a game, that would be sacrilegious.
The funny part is that the Giants might struggle on offense too, since they can’t really run the ball this season (89 ypg – 29th) with Ahmad Bradshaw still hurt, and Manning and their passing game (285 ypg – 5th) will have to go against the strongest part of the Eagles defense which is their secondary (219 ypg – 11th) led by corners Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha.
The Giants have already beaten the Eagles once this season, a 29-16 win on the road in Philly back in September that snapped the Eagles six-game win streak over the G-men. The Giants “contained” the damage done by McCoy in the game (128 yards. TD) and knocked Vick around so much in the game that he eventually was removed for it with a concussion. Meanwhile, Manning carved up the heralded Eagle secondary to the tune of 254 yards and four touchdowns.
Not only was that the first time in seven tries that the Giants were able to beat the Eagles on the scoreboard, but when they won straight up as 9-point underdogs the also snapped an 0-6 ATS record the Eagles had tallied for bettors since the 2008 season.
That said, the underdog is a rock-solid 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these two, and the road team is also 7-2 ATS in the series, so if you want to follow the betting trends you’ll need to forget about the Eagles QB issues and the way they’ve been playing of late.
The under is also a really strong trend play here, going 11-4 in the last 15 games in New York, 4-0 in the Eagles last four games vs. an NFC East rival, and 4-1-1 in the last six game the Giants were favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is exactly the kind of situation that makes the NFL so hard to bet on. Everyone thinks Philly is dead, and Vick may or may not play. But I think there is a little bit of pride in that looker room yet. Call me crazy, but I’m going with a gut call here. I’m betting the Eagles plus the points.
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