Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (2-4
SU, 1-4-1 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Monday, October 26, 2009, FedEx Field,
Hyattsville, Md., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Eagles -7/Redskins +7
Over/Under: 37.5
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Two teams looking to move past highly publicized and embarrassing losses last week will have the whole world watching this week to see how they respond when the NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles visit the Washington Redskins at FexEx Field on Monday Night Football.
The Eagles traveled to the West Coast last Sunday and were stunned, along with everyone else on the planet, when the Oakland Raiders handed them a 12-9 upset. Donovan McNabb was held to 47 percent passing and was sacked six times, and the Eagles normally reliable kicker David Akers missed two chip shots that proved costly in the surprising loss.
But as bad and embarrassing as the folks in Philly must be feeling this week, things can’t get any worse then the state of affairs in Redskins Park these days.
Fans were already revolting against the Redskins, their morbid offense, their head coach Jim Zorn and their owner Dan Snyder, but the final straw may have finally come last Sunday in the form of a 12-6 loss to Kansas City at home in FedEx Field. The Skins only had seven first downs in a horrible display of offense (265 total yards) against a Chiefs team that came into the game as 6.5-point underdogs with the 29th-ranked defense in the league.
The game may be Zorn’s last as head coach too. It took less than 24 hours following the loss to K.C. for Snyder and his lackey GM Vinny Cerrato to take away the play-calling duties of Zorn on offense, and give them to veteran coach Sherman Lewis, who they hired as a “consultant” only last week. Rumors are running rampant that Zorn will be gone by the time the Redskins hit their bye week, which comes the week following the Monday Night Football tilt.
Oddsmaker originally opened the game with the visiting Eagles as 6.5-point favorites, but when news of Zorn’s reduced role on offense broke on Monday the point spread jumped to Eagles minus 7-points at most offshore sportsbooks with a few 7.5’s mixed in here and there.
The over/under total opened at 38.5 and it too had some quick line movement early in the week, dropping a full point to 37.5 at most of the books in Las Vegas, and a few 37 at the books offshore.
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The team that figures out their issues on offense quicker is likely to win this game, because both teams feature top-5 defenses.
The Redskins sacked Kansas City’s Matt Cassell five times and forced the Chiefs to kick four field goals (0-for-2 in red zone), but it still wasn’t good enough for a win last Sunday. For the season the Skins are 5th overall in yards allowed (286.5 ypg) and 5th in points allowed at 16.0 per game.
The Eagles defense is still a dangerous, unpredictable unit that is ranked 4th overall after five games (282.8 ypg), but they have been giving up too many big plays (19.8 ppg – 16th) including an 80-yard touchdown to Oakland’s tight end last weekend.
Offensively it’s no secret the Eagles should hold an edge, and they do statistically (Philly 12th – 351.6 ypg; Wash. 24th 294 ypg), but coach Andy Reid and coordinator Marty Mornhingwig always seem to lose the balance on their play-calling. Last week the Eagles called for 46 pass plays, while only calling for 12 runs (two runs by McNabb were scrambles), so it depends on what kind of game plan the Eagles decide to use every other week.
Predicting the offense the Redskins will run under “new” coordinator Lewis is a crapshoot, but it can’t be too different than what they’ve been trying to do all year. Quarterback Jason Campbell was pulled at halftime of the Chiefs game, but Todd Collins didn’t do much better so expect Campbell back in there, at least at the start.
The Redskins swept the season series last year, winning 23-17 in Philly as 6.5-point underdogs in October, then dumping them 10-3 at home as 4.5-point dogs in late December.
The Skins have now won three of the last four meetings, but they are 6-3-1 ATS for loyal (and crazy) bettors of the team from D.C. in the last 10 meetings including a 3-1-1 ATS mark at home in FedEx. A few other betting trends favor the Skins as well, including the fact the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games, with the road team sporting a 3-1-1 ATS record in the same five game span.
Both games came in under the total last season, and the under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings. The under has traditionally been a strong play at FedEx as well, as the under is 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings in Washington (er, Maryland).
Badger’s Pick: You only need to look at how these two teams played, and lost, last week to realize that the NFL is full of surprises. Everyone and their brother is on the side of Philly in this one, which is a big reason I’m leaning toward the Redskins here. Take Washington plus the full touchdown 7-points.
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