Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-1 SU, 6-1
ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Monday, November 9, 2009, Invesco Field at Mile
High, Denver, Colo., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Steelers -3/Broncos +3
Over/Under: 39.5
Bet this game at an online sportsbookie that offers 15 team parlays, 20 team teasers, pleasers, point buys up to 15 on any single side or total and the most props of any sports book online: 5Dimes.
The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers will try and keep their four-game winning streak going when they travel to the Mile High city of Denver to take on the surprising 6-1 Broncos in an AFC showdown on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football on ESPN.
The Steelers have won four in a row to move to 5-2 on the season and are coming off of a bye week, but prior to the bye the Steelers played perhaps their best game of the season in handing the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre their lone loss of the season, 27-17. Pittsburgh was on the verge of losing to the Vikings late in the fourth quarter when their stellar defense turned up the heat, returning a fumble and an interception for touchdowns to turn a tight game into a solid 10-point victory.
Denver has been the biggest surprise of the year under new head coach Josh McDaniels, jumping out to a 6-0 start before suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday on the road in Baltimore, 30-7. The Broncos new-look defense under coordinator Mike Nolan folded like a tent in the second half last week, giving up 24 points in the final two quarters while the Broncos offense sat in neutral with only 200 yards of total offense the entire game.
The Broncos will try and rebound and get back in the win column Monday night, but they’ll have to do it as underdogs in their own stadium as oddsmakers have installed the Steelers as 3-point favorites on the road. There are a few offshore sportsbooks that have lowered the point spread down to Pittsburgh -2.5 (5Dimes), but the widest range of available odds are currently found in Las Vegas where you can find the Steelers favored by as little as 2-points (at Planet Hollywood) all the way up to 4.5-point favorites (at the Mirage).
The over/under total opened at 38.5 and has climbed up a full point to 39.5 at most of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. There is even a 40 on the board at BetUS.com, but for the most part you’re going to find the total at 39 or 39.5 at a majority of the books.
Offensively the Steelers this season have morphed into a pass-first scheme utilizing the talents of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger instead of the grind-it-out running team most fans grew up watching in Pittsburgh. Player turnover along the offensive line, as well as injuries and ineffectiveness at running back has made coach Mike Tomlin open up the playbook for Big Ben and he’s responded by throwing for 276.1 yards per game (5th in NFL). It’s also helped to put more points on the scoreboard for the Steelers as they are currently ranked 14th in the league at 23.9 points per game.
On the other sideline the Broncos offense does an excellent job of getting the most out of the talent they have, namely quarterback Kyle Orton, who is smart and a proven winner but is limited in his ability to put pressure on defenses in the passing game. The Broncos are 16th in passing (221.4 ypg) and 11th in rushing (123.1 ypg), but their lack of big-play talent (with the exception of receiver Brandon Marshall) drops them down all the way to 20th in scoring at just 20 points per game.
But fans won’t be tuning into the ESPN telecast on Monday to watch these two offense work, they’ll be tuning in to watch two of the best defenses clash head-to-head between the lines.
It’s actually the Denver Broncos under Nolan, not the renowned Steelers defense, that comes into the game as the top-ranked unit in the NFL. The Broncos defense is top-10 across the board allowing only 266.7 yards per game (180.6 ypg passing – 8th; 86.1 ypg rushing – 3rd) and just 13.7 points per game to rank 2nd in the league in scoring defense. It would be one thing if those numbers were compiled against the likes of Kansas City and Oakland, but the Broncos have shut down the Patriots (17 points allowed), the Chargers (23) and Dallas (10), three of the better offenses in the league.
But the model every defensive coordinator in the league aspires to become is still the Steelers defense under Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau. The Steelers secondary has given up some large chunks of yardage in a few games this season (214.6 ypg – 16th), but most of that came while Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu was injured. Otherwise, the Steelers are still a defense that stops the run (76.4 ypg – 1st) and then pins their ears back and brings the pressure once they’ve made you one- dimensional.
The last time these two teams met back in 2007 it was the Broncos winning in a tight game at Mile High Stadium, 31-28. In fact, the Broncos have sort of owned the Steelers of late, winning two in a row and four of the last five dating back to the 1998 season. The lone Steelers victory in that span came in Denver and it was a big one, a 34-17 victory back in the AFC Championship game in 2006, one week before their Super Bowl 40.
All told the Broncos are 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings, but the teams split an even 5-5 ATS record over the same 10 game span. Denver has covered in two straight, but the Steelers hold a slim 4-3 ATS edge in the games played at Mile High, er, Invesco Field.
The over has been a solid play in the head-to-head series, going 5-1 in the last six meetings, which could explain why the total has gone up during the week.
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Other betting trends are hard to follow though, as the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head games (good from Broncos fans), but the Broncos are a meager 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games overall.
Meanwhile, the road team is actually 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to- head meetings (good for Steelers fans), but the Steelers are an abysmal 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Go figure.
Badger’s Pick: Even though all but one of the nine Monday Night games have gone over the total (there were two MNF games the opening week) so far this season, I’m bucking the trend (and the public) and predicting a low-scoring defensive battle this week. Orton and Denver will struggle, while the Broncos D will keep them in the game. Take the under of 39.5.
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