Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 1, Sunday, September 11, 2011, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Pit +2.5/Bal –2.5
Over/Under Total: 36
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The class of the AFC North meets in Week 1, as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a key matchup. The Ravens haven’t been a franchise very long, but the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rivalry stands out as one of the more well-contested and heated in the league. In their last 6 regular season meetings spanning over 3 seasons, all games were decided by 4 points or less.
Both teams were 12-4 last year, with Pittsburgh beating the Ravens in a divisional playoff game en route to the Super Bowl, which they lost to the Packers. Surely, the Steelers would have preferred to win that game, but one positive byproduct will be they won’t have that Super Bowl hangover that seems to plague most championship teams. Expect both teams to play with a lot of passion again this year.
It speaks well of the Steelers that they made it to the Super Bowl. They played their first 4 games without QB Ben Roethlisberger, but when he returned, it was like he didn’t miss a step. He appears to have his overall act together and should benefit from a full campaign. Still, he managed to throw for 3200 yards while throwing only 5 picks the whole year.
His offense is loaded. WR Hines Ward might have lost a bit of his edge, but is still capable of having a big game. In ’10, Mike Wallace had a breakthrough season, catching 60 balls for over 1200 yards, for an average of over 20 yards per pass. When top running backs are discussed, you rarely hear the name Rashard Mendenhall, but after 2 consecutive 1000-yard seasons, he has quietly worked himself into a very productive back, with 13 touchdowns last season.
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The Ravens may be ready to kick it into the next gear. Despite all the talk about them getting away from their reputation as a defensive team, they have never quite broken that mold. With QB Joe Flacco putting up decent numbers, they are not the utterly-defensively-dependent team of prior years, but the Ravens aren’t going to make anyone forget Air Coryell anytime soon. But with the arrival of WR Lee Evans and Anquan Boldin a little more accustomed to the system after arriving last season, this offense could potentially move the ball very well.
Baltimore’s defense, as always, should be ultra-tough. With Ed Reed, the aging but still very good Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and others, there is little reason to suspect a drop in form for a defense that has ranked third in points allowed for 3 consecutive seasons.
The Ravens ability to go from a good team to a legitimate contender will depend on coordinator Cam Cameron’s offense. Flacco’s growth into a good pocket passer needs to be accompanied by results. Drafted wideouts Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss should add new dimensions, as Flacco tries to open it up a bit this year. RB Ray Rice is developing nicely, which should continue to open up the pass. Let’s see if this is the year where Baltimore’s offense can emerge a bit from the shadow of its defense.
Pittsburgh has to be considered one of conference’s big faves, though. Expect their increasingly pass-happy ways to continue. With the addition of veteran Jericho Cotchery and the continued growth of 2nd-year players Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, look for Roethlisberger to have a big statistical year. On defense, they led the league against the run and with a healthy Troy Polamalu, don’t expect anything but a stingy Pittsburgh “D” this year.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The 2.5-point line reflects the closeness of this matchup. These teams playing 6 straight super-close regular season games didn’t happen by accident. The home-field advantage was moot last season, with each team winning one apiece on the road. In nip-and-tuck battles like this, one might be inclined to take the points. The Ravens are good—knocking on the door for several years. The timing could be right for a big push. This is a team bettors will need to be leery of betting against this season.
The historical closeness of this matchup makes it difficult to take a decisive stance, but let’s take the Super Bowl team getting points. It can be dangerous to be on the wrong side of a hook, but I’ll take the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 2.5.
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