Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS), Week 10 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 13, 2011, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio. TV: CBS
by Ryno, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Pit -3/CIN +3
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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Not many people outside of Cincinnati believed the Bengals could possibly be sitting in first place in the AFC North in Week 10. But it's true. The Bengals are tied with the Baltimore Ravens at 6-2 on top of the division standings. But right below them, a half game back, are the Pittsburgh Steelers at 6-3. Saying this is an important game is an understatement. Are the Bengals really for real? We'll find out on Sunday when they host the Steelers with first place on the line.
After four straight wins over the Titans, Jaguars, Cardinals and Patriots, the Steelers' winning streak ended with a 23-20 home loss to the Ravens on Sunday night. Joe Flacco led the Ravens down the field in the final minutes for a game winning 92 yard touchdown drive to win the game. Now, every win is even more important for the Steelers because they were swept by the Ravens and therefore don't hold the tiebreaker.
Behind a rookie quarterback and rookie wide receiver, and coupled with a couple legal issues surrounding the team (nothing new for the Bengals organization), the Bengals have won five games in a row to surge atop the AFC North. Those five wins have come over the Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks and Titans. After a bye, they've won two straight road games and now return home to face the Steelers. For the Bengals, this is also an especially huge game for them because they have to play at Baltimore next week.
If it weren't for Cam Newton, Dalton might be the NFL's Rookie of the Year. Dalton has 1,696 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and a rushing touchdown. Another candidate for Rookie of the Year is A.J. Green, who has 40 receptions for 599 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson has had a mediocre season thus far with 536 rushing yards and two touchdowns in seven games.
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With Rashard Mendenhall struggling to run the ball for much of the season thus far (473 rush yards, four touchdowns in eight games), the Steelers have become a pass happy team. Ben Roethlisberger has really gotten it going lately with 2,632 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Mike Wallace has established himself as one of the best receivers in the league with 47 receptions for 868 yards and six touchdowns. Antonio Brown lately has emerged as a viable receiving option for the Steelers. He has 39 receptions for 540 yards and one receiving touchdown. Tight end Heath Miller has also had a nice year thus far with 35 receptions for 434 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bengals defense has been what has really kept them in games. The most points they have allowed in a game this season is 24 and they've allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one game. They are allowing just over 17 points per game. The Bengals defense is in the top five in the NFL in points per game allowed, total yards per game allowed, rush yards per game allowed, forced fumbles and defensive touchdowns.
The Bengals run defense has been very good this season but their pass defense is a little bit easier to break through. The Steelers will look to pass the ball a lot, as they have been doing, so the Bengals must key in on playing tight coverage on the Steelers receivers. The Bengals like to keep games tight and manageable so they can pull out a win in the end. But the Steelers will need to jump on the Bengals early with some deep strikes to Wallace and Brown.
The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss, and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win, 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against AFC teams, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including a 7-1 ATS mark this year. The Steelers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Cincinnati.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Bungles have played a patty-cake schedule so far, so their record is hugely misleading. Pittsburgh has owned them as of late and I continue this trend to continue this week. I really expected this line to be 6.5 or 7, so am very excited that we only have to lay -3 here. I'm betting Pittsburgh minus the points!
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