Oakland Raiders (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 7
October 23rd 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: EverBank Field Jacksonville, FL
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
Many had jumped on the Raiders bandwagon after they won 4 of their first 5 games even though they obviously had issues on the defense side of the football. However, they did not look good in their last game losing to the Kansas City Chiefs where they only scored 10 points. They are still tied for the lead with the Broncos in the AFC West and head to the Sunshine State this Sunday where they are slight betting underdogs facing the Jaguars.
The Jags have won 2 in a row and even at 2-3 they are in the wide-open AFC South. Their 2 wins gave come against teams that only have a combined 3 wins on the season and they are still, pretty much, a one-dimensional team. I mean they have a legit passing offense ranking 15th in passing yards per game, but they only rank 31st in rushing yards per game and 21st in opponents’ points allowed per game.
The Raiders were outgained 406 yards to 286 yards in the loss to the Chiefs and their run game failed to show up to the tune of only 65 yards. QB Derek Carr does have Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and while Cooper had a legit game against KC Crabtree only had 2 catches for 10 yards.
The Raiders did nothing on the ground facing the Chiefs and that has to change in this game. Oakland has relied on Carr too much early in the season and the Raiders’ RB’s of DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Latavius Murray have to get more touches in this game, not only to help the offense, but to keep the defense off the field.
QB Blake Bortles leads the Jags and he has been pretty good in Jacksonville winning 2 straight and it is key that he does not turn the ball over. He has 7 INT on the season, but only 1 in the last 2 games. He does not have a great WR corps and the leading rusher for the team in T.J. Yeldon has only 176 yards. The Jags have to be smart and that starts with Bortles under center, as if he has to do it all and the defense puts the Jags in a hole they are in trouble.
The Jags beat the Chicago Bears in their last game 17-16 even though they were outgained by 72 yards and they had 2 turnovers while Chicago had none. They were a little lucky that the Bears had 10 penalties in the game, as they shot themselves in the foot.
These teams have not met since the 2013 season in Oakland where the Raiders beat the Jags 19-9. However, the Jacksonville has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games facing Oakland and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games between these teams.
One thing the Raiders have going for them is that they have covered in their last 6 games on the road. However, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team that has a losing record. On the other side of the coin the Jags have covered in 5 of their last 7 games facing a team with a winning record.
The Jags were only 2/10 on 3rd downs in their win over the Bears and they have to be better at that in this game. They will be facing an Oakland D that ranks dead last in the league against the pass and 3rd to last against the run.
The Raiders were smoked in their last game, they have a sketchy defense, and the Jags have won 2 in a row. Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t quite hit stride, but there is no better time than this week against Oakland’s struggling D.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5
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