St. Louis Rams (1-10 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (4-7 SU, 4-7
ATS), Week 13 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, December 6, 2009, Soldier Field,
Chicago, Ill., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Rams +9/Bears -9
Over/Under: 41
Bet this game at a sportsbook that offers 20 point teasers, 15 team parlays, pleasers with huge payouts, oodles of props and more at 5Dimes.
Quarterback Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears will try and discontinue their giving ways as the holiday season approaches, or fall further down the NFC standings when they host the 1-10 St. Louis Rams this Sunday in the Windy City’s Soldier Field.
Cutler was harassed and sacked four times, but he also threw two more interceptions in the Bears 36-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, running his season total to 20 and the Bears season into the toilet at the same time. The loss was the Bears fourth in a row and with games still coming up against the Packers, Ravens and Vikings again, the playoff picture in Chicago is looking like a mirage.
The Rams are still working on playing two complete halves of football each Sunday, and last week they lost the second half at home to Seattle and thus the game, 27-17. To quote ex-coach Denny Green, the Rams … “are exactly who we thought they are!” and that’s a team in the midst of a complete franchise makeover, including a talent- limited roster. They battle hard and new head coach Steve Spagnuolo has the attitude and culture turned around, they just can’t hang in the battle right now a full four quarters.
The point spread for this game depends on your location, because if you live in Las Vegas or know someone who does they can get the Bears as low as 8.5-point favorites on the board of the Hilton, Mirage and Hard Rock.
The rest of the world and the offshore sportsbook community are all moving the line the other way with the Bears as 9- or 9.5-point favorites at a majority of them and 5Dimes.com as the lone site offering a 10-point spread on the Bears.
The over/under total of 41 has held at a majority of the books since it was released earlier in the week, but there are a few offshore sportsbooks offering 41.5 and even a few at 40.5, so you can find a point here or there if you want it.
If you’re looking for some great offense on Sunday, then you may want to pass this game on your DirecTV tuner and go to a different one. Both teams have major personnel issues along multiple parts of their offense, which is why if you watch this game you’ll be tuning in to see the Bears 23rd-ranked unit take on the Rams 24th-ranked unit.
Cutler gets bagged on a lot for the Bears problems on offense, and with 20 interceptions (9 during current 4-game losing streak) he’s certainly worthy of a little angst, but he’s not the problem. The Bears offensive line has underperformed and it’s caused the once- heralded Bears running game and Matt Forte to drop to become the league’s worst at just 85 yards per game.
The Rams have moved on to backup quarterback Kyle Boller now that starter Marc Bulger is out for the season, but the Rams offensive game plan is still the same … ride Steven Jackson until he drops. Or at least ride him until we get behind by multiple scores and then throw on every down to prolong the pain.
St. Louis is 30th in scoring (11.8 ppg), and with names like Donny Avery, Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson (the Rams starting receiving core) as your main threats, it’s no secret why that is a fact. Jackson and the Rams running game is good for 118.7 a game (12th), but at least throw a brutha a bone now and then.
The Bears injury-riddled defense continues to mount casualties, since starters Charles Tillman, Alex Brown and Lance Briggs are all listed as questionable on the injury report this week. The Bears are 24th against the run (125.6 ypg), so that will be the key matchup versus Jackson and the Rams running attack on Sunday.
The Rams defense could be the remedy that Cutler needs for his confidence, ranked 28th overall and 30th in scoring, allowing 27 points per game. Forte might be a great fantasy sleeper play this week, since the Rams defense gives up 148.5 yards per game (28th).
Chicago has won the last two meetings between these two, a 27-3 triumph last November in the Edward Jones Dome and a 42-27 victory in the same venue in 2006. But prior to that it was all St. Louis, as they won the previous four of six meetings since 1998.
The Bears have also covered the point spread in the last four meetings, making them 4-0 ATS since 2000 (both Ram covers were in 1990s).
Of those six games, only two have been played at Soldier Field and both resulted in Bear losses on the scoreboard (23-21 in 2003; 20-12 in 1998).
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As far as betting trends go, there’s not much to turn your head with the possible exception of the under. The under is 4-1 in the Rams last 5 road games, and it’s also 4-1 in the Bears last 5 overall. The under is 4-2 in the series, but 1-1 at Soldier Field.
Badger’s Pick: As bad as both teams have played lately, I don’t feel safe giving either side my wager. So if you must, I’d recommend a play on the over. Two banged up and bad defenses, a QB in desperate need of a three TD game … it all adds up to an over. It may be the backdoor fashion, but this game will go over. Take the over of 41.
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