Los Angeles Rams (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 7-3 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 27th, 2016 at 1:00PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz SuperDome – New Orleans, LA
by Bob, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: LA +7 / NOR -7
Over/Under Total: 45.5
One of the lesser impressive games of this Thanksgiving weekend will be when the Los Angeles Rams head into The Big Easy and take on Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Yeah, for the better part of a decade heading into New Orleans was scary, not so much anymore. The Saints are going downhill, Brees is aging, and the league just is not afraid of these guys anymore. With that said, the 4-6 Rams who have looked plain bad lately do not need to be too confident because they are the type team that Drew Brees and the Saints will take this seasons frustration out on.
Both teams come in at 4-6 overall but in many games, the Saints have shown a little more sign of life than the Rams have. The line as we speak has the Saints as a touchdown home favorite over Los Angeles and the total points are set at 45.5 combined. The public is all over New Orleans in this one with 74% of the action on the Saints and if this keeps up, this line may get even bigger come game time. Against the spread this year, the Saints have been impressive going 7-3 while the Rams are under .500 regarding covering lines.
We finally got to see last year’s top NFL pick suit up and play. The Rams rookie quarterback, Jared Goff, made his first start of his young career and well…it was less than spectacular. Not knocking the kid on one start because the NFL is not college, but he just did not look ready, at all. Is it the coaching staff? Is it the time he spent on the sideline and not playing? Or is this kid just not that good? None of us know for sure, but we will find in the next season or so. Against the Dolphins this past Sunday, the Rams defense did a good job holding the Dolphins nearly scoreless for three whole quarters. The Rams offense could get nothing going. NOTHING. Todd Gurley, the only bright spot on offense in my opinion had a good game, but when the Dolphins were able to key in on him and make Goff throw, that is when things went south for LA. Jared Goff ended the 14-10 loss with 17-31 passing for just 134 yards. These numbers must improve or the Rams may not win another game in 2016.
The Saints in my opinion will do the same thing, they will focus on keeping Gurley and the Rams running game in check, then set up blitz packages to tee off on the rookie quarterback, Goff. Now, the Saints have an offense, a really good one, but their defense is lacking in a big way. If there was a team that Jared Goff could finally get in a rhythm against, it’s the Saints. New Orleans is allowing opponents to score an average of 28.6 points per game which ranks them 30th in the entire NFL. The Saints defensive front will need to make sure they do what I said, stop the run, pressure Goff. If they do this then they will not just win this game by seven, they could win it by 20.
I hate to do this, I really do, especially in the NFL, but I am laying chalk on this one. The Rams are starting a rookie QB for the second time and he has to play in the Super Dome. We know the Saints can score and I think even with their putrid defense, they will be able to force enough mistakes by Jared Goff and the Rams to eventually pull away early in the second half. I am predicting a 38-17 win for the New Orleans Saints in this one. The Rams just are not good and the Saints are still a great offense, especially in the Dome.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO WIN BIG AND COVER THE SEVEN POINTS AT HOME
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