Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date and Time: Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2013, 8:30 pm EST
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md.
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Pit +3/BAL -3
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Bet your Pitt/Balt pick at an online sportsbook where you only lay -105 odds on straight bets and over/unders, not the expensive -110 that your bookie is slamming you with! Making the switch to reduced juice sports betting will save you thousands of dollars over the years! Find this great offer at the web's best online sportsbook: 5Dimes.
The normally white-knuckled, tense rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens may lack a little importance this time around since both teams are below .500 and struggling, but the heated AFC North rivalry game is still good enough to be the primetime featured telecast from M&T Bank Stadium Thanksgiving night on NBC.
It’s been a climb to get to the point of five wins for the Steelers, who are actually in the midst of a three-game win streak including last week’s victory on the road in Cleveland, 27-11. It’s not a coincidence that the Steelers injured and maligned offensive line has improved during the win streak, highlighted by no sacks allowed last week against a stiff Browns front seven.
The defending champion Ravens also enter the Turkey Day tilt on a modest roll, winning two of their last three including home wins over the first-place Bengals and an ugly one over the New York Jets last Sunday, 19-3.
One thing that you can almost set your watch too is the fact the Steelers and Ravens will play a tight, intense game. The games have been decided by 3-points or less in like, forever, and the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 6 points since the opener versus Manning and the Broncos.
The reason I mentioned the Steelers-Ravens history of close games, 3-points or less the paragraph before is because in true Las Vegas form, oddsmakers have punted on setting the opening point spread listing the Ravens as the “standard” 3-point favorite at home. The over/under total is even a ho-hum 40.5.
If this game plays out the way the season has been going so far, it could be a shock for some viewers waking up from their post-turkey feast to see neither team with any sort of a running game. That’s right, a Steelers-Ravens matchup that puts the 30th-ranked Steelers run game (77.3 ypg) versus the Ravens 27th-ranked attack (81.7 ypg). Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco have been forced to play with mediocre offensive lines all season, and as a result the Steelers have thrown it a ton (263 ypg – 8th) whereas the Ravens have just struggled in general (309 total ypg – 29th).
Much has been said about the re-making of the Ravens defense, and after 12 weeks its safe to say the unit is still formidable (329 ypg – 10th) and they have done a great job of forcing field goals to allow only 19 points per game, the 7th-best mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s defense is getting older and slower, but they haven’t forgotten how to play the game (13th overall, but 24th vs. run), and you know defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau knows how to defend against Flacco and the rival Ravens.
DEPOSIT $100 TO $500 AND GET A DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR MATCHING BONUS AT GTBETS + GET A FREE HALF POINT EVERY TIME YOU BET YOUR (2) FAVORITE NFL TEAMS!
As far as wagering on this rivalry, history has been kind to bettors on the Steelers. Pittsburgh has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to Baltimore, and they are also 7-3-2 ATS (all those 3-pt spreads) if you go back through the last 12 meetings between these two.
The under is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five AFC North games, and the under is also 4-1 when the Steelers play on Thursday nights and 5-0 versus the AFC North.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game all boils down to line play and I don't believe the Ravens offensive line is good enough to give Flacco enough time to be productive enough to get the cover here. I'm making a lunch money bet on the Steelers here.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVIII. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd, 2014.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 48. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
Sportsbook - Get a 25% signup bonus on deposits of $200 or more (up to $250 in bonus money). Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.