Baltimore Ravens (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS), Week 10, 8:20 p.m. EST, Sunday Night Football, November 6, 2011, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa. TV: NBC
by Ryno, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bal +3/Pit -3
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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Sunday Night Football with a national audience, the AFC North division lead on the line, and AFC conference supremacy on the line - this is what the NFL is all about. This is a real matchup, one that football fans across America will anticipate.
There will be a lot at stake when the Ravens and Steelers take aim at each other at Heinz Field on Sunday night. The Ravens currently lead the Steelers by a half game in the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals also tied for second place, so the winner of the Ravens and Steelers will be in first place.
The Ravens destroyed the Steelers 35-7 in Baltimore in Week 1, so revenge is certainly on the minds of the Steelers. It will also be very important for the Steelers to win because they have to play at Cincinnati in their following game.
In the Ravens' thrashing of the Steelers in Week 1, they forced seven Steelers turnovers and committed none of their own. With that turnover margin, there was no way the Steelers had a chance to win that game. Joe Flacco threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns, while Ray Rice had 149 total yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens ran for 170 yards as a team and held the Steelers to 66 rushing yards. For the Steelers, Mike Wallace put up nice numbers (8 receptions, 107 yards) but Rashard Mendenhall struggled with only 45 rushing yards and Ben Roethlisberger turned the ball over five times by himself (3 interceptions, 2 fumbles).
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The Ravens are coming off a 30-27 comeback victory over the Arizona Cardinals in which the Ravens were down by 21 points at one point. Down 24-6 at the half, it was the Ray Rice show in the second half as he ran for three touchdowns and Billy Cundiff kicked a 25-yard field goal as time expired to win the game. Rice had 99 total yards and the three scores, and Anquan Boldin was a beast in the second half. He caught seven passes for 145 yards to help the Ravens win the game. Joe Flacco was solid with 336 passing yards on 31-of-51 passing but had no touchdowns and an interception.
The Ravens are 1-2 on the road this season with their only road win coming at St. Louis. The Steelers, who have won four games in a row since starting off 2-2, are 4-0 at home this season. They are coming off an impressive victory over the New England Patriots, 25-17, to establish themselves as perhaps the favorites in the AFC at this point.
In the win over the Pats, the Steelers did an excellent job of stopping the run. The Pats had just 43 rushing yards, including only nine yards for leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The Steelers ran for 98 yards, including 70 for Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers won the game with their run defense and their pass offense, though. Big Ben through for 365 yards and two touchdowns. He did a nice job spreading the ball around to nine different receivers, including nine receptions for Antonio Brown (stepping into the starting lineup for the injured Hines Ward) and seven for tight end Heath Miller.
Both of these teams have strong defenses and both have a balanced offense with a nice running attack. This game, especially after the turnover margin in Week 1, will come down to turnovers. Whichever offense makes the most mistakes and whichever defense capitalizes more will likely come out on top in this one.
The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall between these teams. The Steelers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings against the Ravens.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Ravens have proven to be vulnerable at times. Pittsburgh seems to be gaining steam and I'm really liking what I see from their team. Many think this game will be close but I don't. I like the Steelers to win and cover convincingly.
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