Washington Redskins (4-11 7-8 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (12-3 8-7 ATS), NFL Week 17, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA 4:15 PM EST Sunday January 3, 2010 on FOX
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Redskins +3.5 / Chargers -3.5
O/U: 39
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In sunny Southern California on Sunday afternoon the streaking San Diego Chargers take on the disappointing Washington Redskins. Now, I am a Redskins fan and this season I have seen the Skins play some terrible football including their last 2 games getting crushed at home to the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. Their season is lost, but they can gain a little momentum for next season with a win in this game over a Chargers team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
The Chargers have already wrapped up the AFC West title and they will also get a 1st round bye in the playoffs. Will the Chargers even throw out their big guns for this game since it really does not mean anything? Philip Rivers in THE man in San Diego, but do not be surprised if he rides some pine in this game in order to avoid getting injured.
The Redskins lost their last game to the hated Dallas Cowboys 17-0 while the Chargers won their 10th straight game laying a beat-down on the Tennessee Titans 42-17 on Christmas Day.
In the win over the Titans the Chargers did as expected and dominated the passing game out-gaining Tennessee 259 passing yards to 88. The Titans did have more rushing yards (182 to 166), but the Titans simply could not defend the pass and it did not help that they committed 3 turnovers in the game. The Chargers dominated in time of possession almost 2 to 1 (39:07 to 20:53). The Chargers were actually underdogs by 1.5 points in this game so they barely covered the spread, by only 23.5 points, and the posted total of 47.5 was surpassed.
In their loss to Dallas the Redskins had fewer total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. The Redskins could not run the ball, as they only had 43 rushing yards and Jason Campbell was pressured by the Dallas' D all game. The Redskins were only 4/14 on 3rd down conversions and Dallas had the ball for almost 10 more minutes in the game. The Redskins were underdogs at home by 7 points so they did not cover the spread and the posted total of 42 was nowhere near being reached.
According to the Sagarin NFL ratings the Chargers rank 4th (28.06) and the Redskins rank 26th (13.37).
In some interesting trends for this game Washington is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points, and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, and 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The total was Over in 6 of the last 7 Washington games after a SU loss and the total has gone Over in the last 4 San Diego games played on grass, which this game will be played on.
San Diego is giving up an average of just over 120 rushing yards per game, but look for them to improve on their average in this game, as the Redskins RB's corps has been decimated by injuries this season.
The Chargers have 34 sacks this season and they will add to that total against a Redskins' offensive line that has struggled all season due to key player injuries.
Philip Rivers will have a big game, as he always does at home and he will be facing a sketchy Washington secondary.
The Redskins have the league's 11th ranked defense, but look for them to struggle in this game against a Chargers' offense that has been scoring at will recently.
Jason's Pick: The only thing that the Redskins have going for them is this game does not mean anything to the Chargers. However, the Skins are really struggling on both sides of the ball and even if Rivers sits down the Chargers will still play solid defense. Not to mention, the Chargers second stringers may be just as good if not better than what Wash. has puts on the field. I do not think this game will be a blowout, as the Redskins seem to play better on the road, but the Chargers will win this game and cover the spread.
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