Washington Redskins vs. Baltimore Ravens Preview and Pick

Washington Redskins (7-4) +5, 36 O/U at Baltimore Ravens (8-4) -5, 36 O/U, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md., 8:15 PM Eastern, Sunday, NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com

Two teams jockeying for their playoff lives lock horns Sunday in M&T Bank Stadium when the Washington Redskins travel to face the Baltimore Ravens on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in America.

The Redskins will be looking to keep their NFC wildcard hopes alive and try and rebound from a disappointing 23-7 loss last weekend at home to their rival New York Giants. After starting the season with a 6-2 record and looking like one of the top teams in the NFC, the Redskins have fallen on hard times lately losing three of their last four games. The losing spell has allowed a few teams to pass them up and if the playoffs were to start today, the Redskins would on the outside looking in, so it’s a “must win” game this weekend if the Redskins hope to keep pace with the pack.

Baltimore is one of the surprises of the AFC this season. Not much was expected of the Ravens with a rookie head coach in John Harbaugh and a rookie starting quarterback in Joe Flacco, but they have won six of their last seven games and have kicked the door in to emerge right smack dab in the middle of the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens are also coming off of a statement victory in their 34-3 thrashing of Cincinnati last Sunday, with that statement being that they will not be going away anytime soon.

Most bookies opened the game with the Ravens as 5-point favorites at home, and the number has held firm through early betting, but a lot of offshore sportsbooks have taken the game off the board completely due to the uncertain status of Redskins running back Clinton Portis.

The over/under total opened at a measly 36.5 and it too has held firm through early wagering, although there are several books that have dropped it a hook to 36. But again, the chance of bad weather has the total currently off the board at a large majority of books both offshore and in Las Vegas. The moneyline lists the Ravens as -235 favorites, with the Redskins as +215 underdogs.

As mentioned, the game is off the board in most places due to the health of Washington’s star running back Portis. Portis has been dealing with a balky knee, and although he played last week versus the Giants, he was largely ineffective with only 22 yards on 11 carries. When Portis is healthy, he IS the Redskins offense as they average 139.4 yards per game on the ground, which is the 5th-best total in the NFL.

The Redskins need Portis to make their “West Coast” offense work because quarterback Jason Campbell has become the king of the check- down pass. The Skins only throw for 199.7 yards per game (20th), and tend to have trouble once the reach the red zone and teams stack the box, as they are just 28th in the league in scoring at 19.3 points per game.

Baltimore’s offense has been surprisingly good this season under the direction of the rookie Flacco, with season averages (323.9 ypg – 19th; 144.2 ypg rushing – 3rd; 24.3 ppg – 10th) that are typical of Ravens teams the last decade. Showing a maturity most rookies don’t display until a few years are under their belt, Flacco has been efficient (12 TD, 9 INT, 61 comp %) and has stayed within the Ravens scheme, which is reliant on a power running game and a dominant defense.

Speaking of defense, two of the league’s best face off in this game. Baltimore is 2nd in yards allowed (253.3 ypg), 2nd versus the pass (175.2 ypg), 3rd versus the run (78.1 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (15.8 ppg). Last week they held the Bengals to just 155 yards of total offense (57 rushing, 98 passing), and while it did come against the Bengals, it’s still impressive nonetheless.

Washington’s defense isn’t exactly chopped liver either, as they are ranked 6th overall (283.4 ypg), 8th versus the pass (192.6 ypg), 7th versus the run (90.8 ypg) and 6th in points allowed (18.5 ppg). They did get gouged for 404 total yards last week versus the Giants, but the Giants are 11-1 and perhaps the best team in the league so that’s not really an knock on their abilities.

These two haven’t met in the regular season since the 2005 campaign, which ended up as a 26-20 overtime victory for the Ravens in the season opener in Baltimore. Baltimore also won the previous game, a 17-10 decision in 2004 played at FedEx Field. All told, the Ravens hold a slim 4-3 edge both straight up and against the spread in the last seven games between these two in the regular season. Five of those seven games ended under the total.

Surprisingly, the over is 7-2 in Baltimore’s last nine home games at M&T Bank Stadium. The over is also 6-0-1 in the Ravens last seven games overall. The betting trend is the exact opposite for the Redskins, as it is the under that is 7-0-1 in the Skins last eight overall.

The Ravens are a cash-machine like 9-3 ATS this season, including an impressive 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games and a 5-1 ATS mark at home. Meanwhile, despite being 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games the Redskins seem to play well when the weather turns cold, as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in December.

Badger’s Pick: I would say that at 9-3 ATS, it’s time to jump on the Ravens bandwagon if you’re not already on it. But even though the game is at home, I still think 5 points is too high of a spread here. So I’m taking the Redskins plus the 5-points here in a game they lose on a late field goal.

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