New Orleans Saints (7-6) +3, 45 O/U at Chicago Bears (7-6) -3, 45 O/
U, Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill., 8:15 PM Eastern, Thursday, NFL Network
by Badger of Predictem.com
The NFL Network scores a hit this Thursday when they broadcast a “must-win” showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago.
At 7-6, the Bears must win to keep alive their chances at an NFC North Division title. One game behind the Minnesota Vikings already, the Bears will have to put forth another solid outing like they did last Sunday in their 23-10 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Also 7-6, the Saints need to win to keep whatever scant playoff hopes they have alive and on life support. They stayed alive last week with a 29-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons, but they trail the Dallas Cowboys, Falcons and the one-tie Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC’s final wildcard spot, so their odds are mathematical at this point.
Oddsmakers opened the game with the Bears as the standard 3-point home favorites, and the number has held with the lone exception being 5Dimes.com, which lists the Bears as 2.5-point favorites. The over/ under total opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 or even 44.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. The moneyline lists Chicago as -150 favorites, with the Saints as +130 underdogs.,
Offensively these two teams have vastly different approaches on how to get the job done.
The Saints own the NFL’s top offense (405.9 ypg) and the game’s top passing attack (310.2 ypg) with quarterback Drew Brees calling the shots. With Brees throwing the ball all over the field, the Saints also own the NFL’s 2nd-ranked scoring offense at 28.2 points per game.
But last week the Saints displayed balance they haven’t had in over two seasons. Pierre Thomas (102 yds., 5.4 yards per carry) and the return of Reggie Bush allowed the Saints to run for a season-high 184 yards versus the Falcons. If the Saints are able to repeat that performance on the ground, it will no doubt open up the play-action passing game the Saints haven’t had the luxury of using in years.
The Bears are strictly a run-first, play-action passing attack that has struggled at times to gain yardage (308 ypg – 24th) and score points (23.4 ppg – 16th). Rookie running back Matt Forte is over 1,000 yards already and has been a pleasant surprise for Bears fans, but the lack of weapons at receiver and a true top-tier quarterback to get the ball to them keeps the Bears passing scheme very vanilla and in the lower half of the league (195.1 ypg – 21st). Kyle Orton rebounded last week to have a strong game (20-of-34, 219 yds., 2 TD), but the previous three weeks he only hit 49.4 percent of his passes, which is a direct indication of how weak the Bears passing game truly is most of the time.
It’s on the defensive side of the ball where these two teams take 180- degree turns. The Bears rely on their defense to keep them in every ballgame, sometimes to a fault, while the Saints just simply have a hard time stopping anybody at times.
The Bears defensive unit ranks 17th overall (325.4 ypg) and is particularly strong versus the run (91.2 ypg – 6th). However, their weak point is pass defense (234.2 ypg – 28th) and that certainly looks bad on paper when they will be facing the Saints and Brees and the league’s top passing offense.
The Saints defense is 23rd overall (346.3 ypg), and is also better versus the run (112.8 ypg – 20th) than the pass (233.5 ypg – 27th), but they give up points in bunches usually which is why they are 24th in scoring allowing over 25 points a game (25.1).
The Bears have the Saints number in head-to-head games recently too, as the Saints season has basically ended in Chicago the past two seasons. The Bears knocked them out of the 2006 playoffs with a 39-14 victory as similar 2.5-point favorites at Soldier Field in early January of 2007. Last year the Bears beat the Saints 33-25 in the final week of the regular season ending the slim chance of playoffs the Saints had going into the game as 1-point road favorites.
All told, these two are 4-4 straight up in their last eight meetings in the regular season, while the Saints hold a slim 4-3-1 ATS record in the series. The over has been a solid wager, going 5-2-1 in the same eight games since the 1997 season.
Despite their struggles to win, the Saints have been good to bettors with a 9-4 ATS record and four straight covers. The Saints have gone over the total in eight of their 13 games this season, and the over is 13-4-1 in their last 18 overall.
The Bears are just 6-6-1 ATS in 2008, but have covered in two of their last three since a three-game non-covering streak during the midseason. Despite being just 5-8 versus the total in ’08, the Bears do have a tendency to go over at Soldier Field (19-7 in last 26 home games).
Badger’s Pick: The weather is going to be cold, but mostly element- free tonight. In other words, Brees should be able to throw with little trouble and the field should be solid without too much slipping and sliding. I like the over tonight, as Brees should be able to throw versus a weak Chicago pass defense and the Bears should be able to run and throw versus a weak Saints defense. Go with the over of 45.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.