New Orleans Saints (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, Week 6 NFL, Sunday, October 16, 2011, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla., TV: FOX
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: N.O. -4.5/TB +4.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
Bet the Saints/Bucs game at a sportsbook that WILL get your credit card to work for deposits and is the only online bookie that can boast that they were the first online: Intertops.
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to claw their way to the top of the NFC South standings then this is the week when they will have to make their move, since they host the division rival New Orleans Saints at home in Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
The Saints sit alone in first place in the NFC South and have won four straight since losing to the Green Bay Packers in the NFL’s kickoff opener, including a come-from-behind, 30-27, victory over the Carolina Panthers last weekend. Drew Brees found Pierre Thomas for a short touchdown with only 50 seconds remaining in the game to help the Saints fend off Cam Newton and the Panthers upset bid.
They’ll take on a Tampa Bay team that is still smarting from a disastrous road trip to San Francisco last weekend, losing by a 48-3 score in a game where nothing went right for the Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense could only muster 274 yards of total offense and turned the ball over three times, and the Bucs defense was tattooed by Frank Gore and the 49ers offense to the tune of 418 yards in the lopsided loss on the West Coast.
But a new week in the NFL brings a new challenge for the young Buccaneers, as they will try and right the ship at Raymond James Stadium when the Saints come calling on Sunday.
Oddsmakers originally opened the Sunday afternoon NFC South showdown with the Saints as 5-point favorites on the road. The opening point spread seems to be spot on for the most part too, since the early action at the betting window has only caused the number to drop the hook to Saints minus -4.5-points at most of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and around the Internet.
The over/under total opened at 49 and it has only seen a half-point of line movement up to 49.5 at most sportsbooks as the book managers try and eliminate the possibility of the game ending in a push. There are a few books listing the total as high as 50, but for the most part 49.5 seems to be where the total will close when kickoff approaches on Sunday.
The Buccaneers will have their hands full on defense because the Saints offense is hitting on all cylinders like they did during their Super Bowl run two years ago.
Brees is throwing the ball with accuracy (69.4 comp. %, 102.3 QB rating) and the Saints are averaging over 336 yards a game in the air. Tight end Jimmy Graham is emerging as his favorite target, and with Thomas healthy again to join a trio of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles out of the backfield the Saints have weapons galore at the disposal of Brees when they have the rock.
STOP WASTING MONEY LAYING -110 ODDS AND START BETTING SMART AT -105 AT 5DIMES
They shouldn’t run into much resistance either, as the Bucs defense doesn’t have a defensive ranking over 20th in the NFL. That 20th ranking, their pass defense at 254.6 yards per game, will surely get tested this week with Brees and coach Sean Peyton calling the shots. The Bucs defense does play better at home, as they did in holding the Falcons to 13 points a few weeks ago, with their points allowed average dropping six points (19 ppg at home to 25 ppg on the road) when they have home cooking.
When TB has the ball they must do a better job of taking care of the ball. Freeman has a tendency to try and make plays out of the pocket when his protection breaks down, which can end up being a double-edged sword. The Bucs also have to do a better job of scoring in the red zone, since they have little trouble moving the ball at times (336.6 ypg – 20th) but it doesn’t always translate into points (17.4 ppg – 28th).
What will be interesting to watch is how well Freeman and his offensive line handle the Saints blitz schemes. New Orleans is one of the heaviest blitz teams in the league, and while Freeman is a big, strong kid he might be forced to take what they give them instead of forcing things downfield.
Ironically, these two teams split the season series last year but they did it by winning on the road. New Orleans beat the Bucs in Tampa in October, 31-6, as 5.5-point favorites, but the Buccaneers returned the favor in January but beating the Saints in the Superdome, 23-13.
The same scenario (winning on the road) played out in 2009 too, with the Saints taking home a lopsided 38-7 victory in Raymond James Stadium in November of that year. In fact, if you take it out further you’ll find that the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings.
All told the series is very even, both on the field and at the betting window, going 5-5 SU since 2006 and 5-5 ATS for bettors.
But with all of that said, there are two very interesting betting trends to consider. Within the NFC South division the Saints are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 tries, while the Bucs are a solid 4-1 ATS going back a short sample of the last five tries.
The under also is a strong trend play, going 10-2 in the Saints last 12 games versus an NFC South opponent. The under is also 9-3 in the Buccaneers last 12 games versus an NFC South foe, and a perfect 5-0 in the last five times these two have met head-to-head.
Badger’s Pick: Sooner or later the Saints will stumble, and I got to believe the Buccaneers will be viewing this game as a must-win after last week’s debacle. I like the Bucs as a home dog here, but I think I’m going to take the safer trend play and take the under on Sunday. I’m taking the under of 49.5.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.