New Orleans Saints (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 1 NFL, Thursday, September 8, 2011, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis., TV: NBC
by Badger, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: N.O. +4.5/GB -4.5
Over/Under Total: 47
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The National Football League will once again roll out the red carpet for a huge Thursday Night premiere on NBC to kickoff the regular season in primetime on national television. Like always the game will feature the defending Super Bowl Champions, which means this year the game will showcase the Green Bay Packers, hosting the former champion New Orleans Saints, in legendary Lambeau Field with an 8:20 pm start time.
The Packers, fresh off their victory over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 45, will bring virtually the same team back for this season to try and make another run at a title. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense will look to recapture the magic they displayed during last year’s title run, while the defense will have its hands full trying to stop the Saints and quarterback Drew Brees.
Brees and Saints head coach Sean Peyton appear to have reloaded their potent offense that has put them on the list of one of the highest scoring QB-Coach combos in NFL history. How the Saints defense rebounds from a disappointing 2010 season (allowed 5.2 yards per play) will determine how far they will go in their bid to get back into the NFC playoffs and beyond.
When the oddsmakers in Las Vegas first opened the betting lines for the first week of the NFL season the Packers were originally listed as 4.5-point favorites, a number that has held for the most part, although you can find a few online sportsbooks on the Internet that have dropped the Packers to just 4-point favorites.
The over/under total opened at 46 and is currently listed at 46.5 or as high as 47 at a few sportsbooks, as it appears the early money at the window is driving the total up with both Brees and Rodgers and their prolific offenses influencing bettors at first glance.
The last time these two offenses faced off they combined to score 80 points on Monday Night Football, with three straight Saints touchdowns in the third quarter sparking a huge 51-29 win for New Orleans in the Louisiana Superdome. In that matchup Brees threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns and had a vintage night, while Rodgers threw three interceptions in the primetime duel.
But Rodgers has since gone on to win a Super Bowl, and his precision in the passing game in the all important “third preseason” game was outstanding last week against the Colts, so this one probably won’t be as easy as the last meeting. Running back Ryan Grant is back healthy to split time with James Starks out of the backfield, so the Packers running game should be stronger this year too. T.J. Lang is the Packers only new starter along the offensive line, replacing Daryn Colledge at left guard, which should also help to improve the running game because Lang is more of a brawler while Colledge had a tendency to get thrown around like a rag doll in the run game.
The Saints offense also looked in mid-season form in their third preseason game last week, with Brees picking apart the Raiders secondary in the passing game Sunday night in Oakland. What should be interesting to see is who gets the bulk of the carries for New Orleans out of the backfield. Reggie Bush is gone and Pierre Thomas is hurt, again, so rookie first round pick Mark Ingram has stepped up as the go-to guy in the preseason. Ingram has also gotten the load of the short yardage and goal line carries, so the former Heisman winner from Alabama could be an important cog in the Saints offensive machine this year.
Defensively the Packers appear to be more capable of handling the other teams offensive scheme. Green Bay welcomes Morgan Burnett back at safety (tore his knee in week 4 last season), so the secondary that already has Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Nick Collins will be faster and more athletic, especially when nickel back Sam Shields is on the field too. How the Packers handle the loss of end Cullen Jenkins will be important, since it was Jenkins that provided the rush from the right edge opposite of Clay Mathews and if the Packers can’t find someone to replace him Mathews is certain to see double and triple teams on certain passing downs.
The Saints defense will need to rebound back to form after a down season last year, especially ends Will Smith and Alex Brown and LB Scott Shanle. The Saints gave up huge yardage last year (5.2 per play, 4,900 total yards), and neither Smith nor Brown provided much pass rush off the edge. Smith could take advantage of Packers LT Chad Clifton who has struggled all preseason and has gotten limited reps in practice for a variety of reasons. New Orleans looks like it will start Jonathon Amaya at safety opposite Malcolm Jenkins too, and with only 10 starts in his career you can bet big money that Rodgers and his crew of receivers will test Amaya often and early.
The last time these two played the Saints covered as 1-point favorites at home and the total of 80 points blew away the closing total of 51.5 at kickoff. With all of the offense on the field on both sidelines, along with some big questions on defense, I would fully expect the over/under total to climb higher than its current number of 47 in the next week before the opener.
Most of the betting trends favor the Packers in this matchup too. Green Bay is a covering machine (24-12 ATS in last three years), especially at home in Lambeau (10-5 ATS, 13-3 SU). The Pack is also 17-8 ATS on grass, compared to the Saints mark of 6-5 ATS on grass away from the carpet in the Superdome.
The Saints do have some good luck going against teams from the NFC North however, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the black-n-blue North the last three seasons. The Packers have struggled against NFC South opponents, going 1-2 ATS and SU over the past few seasons.
Badger’s Pick to Beat the Point Spread: I absolutely love getting both the 3 and the 4 (key numbers). Take the Saints to get the money!
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