San Diego Chargers (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (9-5 SU, 6-6-2 ATS), 4:05 p.m. EST, NFL Week 16, Saturday, December 24, 2011, Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:SD +1.5/DET -1.5
Over/Under Total: 50.5
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The San Diego Chargers travel to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on Saturday. Detroit is 1 win away from making the playoffs. San Diego, meanwhile, is on a typical late-season run, trying to compete with a large group of teams vying for a wild card spot. Each team will be playing hard with so much on the line.
Detroit has shown a lot of resolve to avoid being one of those teams that starts wonderfully, only to fall apart in the second half of the season. A 5-0 start was followed by 5 losses in their next 7 games. But in winning two straight games, they have shown they are not ready to fade away just yet. Against Oakland on Sunday, they trailed 27-14 with 5 minutes left in the game, coming all the way back. A touchdown from Stafford to Johnson was a thing of beauty, sending the Lions up 28-27 with 34 seconds left.
The Chargers always make it interesting late. At 4-7, everyone was sticking a fork in San Diego. And while they still face an unlikely playoff future, they deserve credit for coming back from a seemingly endless 6-game losing streak to win 3 in a row and even be in this position. The first two teams they beat in their recent surge were the sagging Bills and Jaguars. Beating the 10-3 Ravens on Sunday, however, showed a Chargers team that has really hit its stride.
WR Vincent Jackson and RB Ryan Mathews are now both over 1000 yards, with Rivers surpassing 4000 yards passing. During this 3-game streak, Rivers is 63-84 for 804 yards and 7 touchdowns. More importantly, he has thrown zero interceptions--something that plagued him during the Chargers’ woeful mid-season stretch.
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San Diego is slowly restoring confidence in bettors, who struggled with the Chargers all year. After only a pair of covers in their first 11 games, San Diego has covered in 3 straight games, including a 20-point win against the Ravens on Sunday evening. The Chargers receiving crew is now healthy, with Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd all making key contributions in recent weeks. Even their big back, Michael Tolbert, has touchdowns in 3 straight games.
Detroit and San Diego has played 6 common opponents this year. Against the Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, and Bears, the Lions have gone 4-2, having outscored those teams 183-120. In 8 games against the same group of teams, San Diego is only 3-5, having been outscored 201-181. That comparison can be a faulty one, but it is a little curious that the 7-7 Chargers are only a 1.5-point dog at the 9-5 Lions. It’s as if the oddsmakers are expecting a great Chargers team to show up and anyone who has watched them this season knows that can be a dangerous assumption to make.
At the same time, San Diego is a team that always comes on strong late and that can’t be ignored. Their defense has been playing good football lately, giving up only 38 points in their last 3 games. The San Diego secondary has been tightening up, holding opposing quarterbacks to 57-114 completions with 616 yards and 4 touchdowns against 6 picks in the past 3 weeks.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Lions QB Matthew Stafford is quietly putting up huge numbers, completing 62.7% of his passes for 4145 yards and 33 touchdowns. But look for the more diverse Chargers’ offense to get some good work done in this game. RB Mathews will enjoy some success, and his good form should continue against a sometimes-iffy Detroit run “D.” This will lend some balance to the San Diego offense and keep Detroit guessing.
The Chargers top 2 receivers, Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, are averaging 18.5 and 21.1 yards per catch, respectively. Detroit’s secondary will be tough at home, but with so many options, Rivers should be able to connect with his playmakers regularly, en route to a tough road win and cover. Take the San Diego Chargers plus 1.5 points.
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