San Diego Chargers (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 7, Sunday, October 23, 2011, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SD -1/NYJ +1
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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The San Diego Chargers travel to East Rutherford to face the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This is a key AFC matchup between two contenders. San Diego, despite not playing at top form, has scrambled to a 4-1 record. The Jets sit at 3-3, after beating Miami on Monday night to bring an end to a 3-game skid.
While the J-E-T-S are facing a short week, the Chargers are coming off a bye. With the new rules, however, it’s not so clear that the break will favor San Diego. While the time off will presumably help the banged-up Chargers, teams coming off a bye are 1-5 this year. While that’s hardly a reliable statistic, it makes one wonder. Teams now must take at least 4 consecutive days off on a bye-week and it hasn’t seemed to help, as most of the squads coming off a break seemed flat and out of sorts.
The Jets really needed a win on Monday against the winless Dolphins. In losing 3 straight, however, they showed they have not quite captured the form that will make them a top contender. In their 3 wins, the combined record of their opponents is 3-13. Conversely, the trio of teams who have beaten the Jets are a combined 13-4. While we’re only 6 games into the season, the Jets need to show they can hang with the elite. At home against a team they have played well in the past, they have a good opportunity to show their mettle on Sunday.
The Chargers have reversed the form of prior years a bit, by winning despite key playmakers not playing terribly well. In past campaigns, slews of mistakes have cost the Chargers early-season wins, despite glistening stats on offense. Philip Rivers is averaging 300 yards per game passing, but with only 6 touchdowns against 7 picks, he hasn’t exactly been himself. You can sense him trying to do too much at times.
You can’t blame Rivers for trying to over-compensate. Once again, the injury bug has plagued the bolts, with key players on both sides of the ball missing time. Key offensive players like WR Vincent Jackson, RB Ryan Mathews, and RB Michael Tolbert were both hurt in the last game, though are probable for Sunday. TE Antonio Gates will probably play, but is still nursing a bad foot, which has kept him out of action.
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While their last matchup was back in a January 2010 playoff game, it’s difficult to forget how the Jets “D” kept the chargers in check en route to a 17-14 win. At the time, the Chargers had won 11 straight games, while the Jets had scraped into the playoffs with a 9-7 record. San Diego should have won, but the Jets defense was extremely hard on Rivers and Company. A lot of the same pieces are in place, so it’s worth entertaining the possibility that San Diego might struggle to put up points against a home Jets “D” that is rounding into shape.
The Jets gave up 30 or more points in their 3 straight losses, but playing 3 straight weeks on the road against a trio of winning teams was a difficult task. It makes being at home all the more sweet and they certainly looked like they recaptured some momentum on Monday, albeit against the winless Dolphins.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Look for a tough, close game. The Chargers are a good team and bound to explode at any time, but they might not be in the best spot as a road favorite in this game. San Diego is rested and might have some extra pep, but until they start producing some of the results of past campaigns, one should remain suspect, especially with only a pair of covers this year.
Look for LaDainian Tomlinson, who still has some pep, to play hard against his former team. In addition, one should wonder when Chargers kicker Nick Folk, perfect so far this year, might begin to miss in a game where he could see 4-5 attempts. The difference just might be that the Jets need this game a little bit more. In a back-and-forth game, the Jets will hold on for a cover. Take the New York Jets plus one point.
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