San Diego Chargers (6-3 4-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-3 6-3 ATS), NFL Week 11, Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver, CO 4:15 PM EST Sunday November 22, 2009 on CBS
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: TBA (not out yet due to Orton status)
This Sunday in Mile High City the struggling Denver Broncos host the streaking San Diego Chargers. The Broncos have lost 3 in a row and the Chargers have won 4 in a row and now both teams are tied atop the AFC West. The winner of this game will be all alone in 1st place in the division. At the end of last season the Broncos imploded and handed the division crown to the Chargers and it looks as that is happening in the middle part of this season. The Broncos' defense has let them down in their 3 game slide and in their last game QB Kyle Orton hurt his ankle. Denver has to stop the bleeding and start winning, as they have a tougher remaining schedule than the Chargers do. It seems like the Broncos that started 6-0 are in the past with their recent play. This home game is vital for Denver not only for them to stay in 1st place in the division, but also to restore their confidence.
In their last game the Broncos lost to the Washington Redskins 27-17 while the Chargers had a solid win in beating the Philadelphia Eagles 31-23.
In their loss to the Broncos the reasons they lost is that they committed 2 turnovers and they could not stop the run. Also, after Orton went out with an ankle injury backup QB Chris Simms could not do anything. After scoring 14 points in the 1st quarter the Broncos only scored 3 points for the rest of the game. The Broncos did not play good 3rd down D to say the least, as the Redskins were 8/16 on 3rd down conversions. The Broncos also allowed the Redskins to dominate in terms of time of possession (35:43 to 24:17). The Broncos were favored by 3 points so they did not cover and the total of 36.5 was surpassed.
In their win over the Eagles the Chargers finally were able to run the ball, as they had 119 yards rushing while the Eagles only had 29. The Eagles had many more passing yards, but they were down early and had to go to the air in order to come back, which they could not do. The Chargers' D stuffed the run and they forced Donovan McNabb into 56 pass attempts. The Chargers also played a very mistake-free game, as they were only penalized 3 times for 31 yards and they did not commit any turnovers. The Chargers were favored by 1 point and the posted total of 47 was surpassed.
This season the Chargers have not been able to run the ball and QB Philip Rivers has had to do it all. However, in the win over the Eagles the LaDainian Tomlinson looked like the LT of old rushing for 96 yards. If the Chargers can run the ball against the Broncos they will be in good shape.
Denver's defense ranks 7th in the league, but a few weeks ago they were the top-ranked unit. During their 3-game losing streak the Broncos have given up an average of 28 points per game.
Kyle Orton's ankle injury is severe enough that he may miss this game and if he does the Broncos may be in trouble. Backup Chris Simms was only 3/13 for 13 yards with 1 INT after Orton went out in the loss to Washington.
If Orton can't go the Denver RB's of Knowshon Moreno (520 yds 2 TD) and Correll Buckhalter (364 yds 1 TD) will have to carry the offensive load. Moreno is now the featured back, as in the Redskins' loss he had 96 yards rushing while Buckhalter only had 11.
The Chargers' defense ranks 14th and their strength is not stopping the run, but if they can score quickly and force the Broncos to pass the ball to come back, like in the win over the Eagles, they will be in good shape.
Denver's pass defense ranks 5th in the league and they will have their hands full in this game against Phillip Rivers and a Chargers' passing offense that is averaging 260 yards per game.
If both teams play like they have been the Chargers will win this game.
Jason's Pick - Things do not look good for Denver with their losing streak and possible loss of their starting QB. If the Chargers' rushing offense continues to play well they will not only win this game, but they have a legit shot to go far in the playoffs. The Chargers will keep rolling, as even though this game is in Denver they will win this game and take over 1st place in the AFC West. Without a spread available, we have to wait though as they media may over-sensationalize the loss of Orton and the betting value may be with the Broncos.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming in 2015!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.