San Francisco 49ers (9-1 SU, 9-0-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, NFL Week 12, Thanksgiving Thursday, November 24, 2011, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland, TV: NFL Network
by Scotty L, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SF +3/Balt -3
Over/Under Total: 38.5
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On Thanksgiving Day, the San Francisco 49ers travel East to take on the Baltimore Ravens. This is the battle of the Harbaugh brothers, with Jim running the 49ers and John leading the Ravens. At a combined 16-4 this season. it is clear that this pair of brothers is getting the job done. The 49ers are on an incredible run--winning 8 straight games. But with a road game against the 7-3 Ravens, this could be their toughest matchup of the year so far. At the very least, they will be facing a defense that can compete with their “D,” which is the top-ranked unit in the NFL.
The 49ers have not failed to cover the spread this season, with a push being their only non-cover of the year. If you somehow had the foresight to predict how well they would do against the spread, you’d be a happy person. A bettor who took a mere $20 at the beginning of the year and let it ride every week on the 49ers would now have enough money for an all-expenses-paid trip to Hawaii and then some. There is no overstating how big of a surprise they have been this season.
The Ravens haven’t been as kind to bettors, despite having a good season so far. They have only covered once in the past 5 games. Worth noting, however, is the fact that they have only failed to cover the spread once this year when playing at home. Traveling across the country and facing a team outside of your conference is often a tough proposition. The Ravens are hoping that fact, combined with their excellence as a team, will be enough to beat the 49ers.
The Vegas boys certainly know what they’re doing, but this week’s point-spread of Baltimore -3.5 again shows a certain lack of respect for the 49ers, whose only loss came in week 2--an overtime loss to Dallas. The line basically says that the Ravens are a half-point better than the Niners, with the customary 3-point allowance for home-field advantage. With a 9-0-1 record ATS, one would think the lines would be inducing bettors to take the opposite side. This week, however, it’s somewhat surprising that one can still find good value on the 49ers.
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San Francisco’s 9 wins are over opponents who are now a combined 41-49, suggesting a slightly soft schedule. Baltimore should be their biggest test. Defensively, they are 3rd in points allowed and should stiffly test a Frisco offense that has not seen a unit like the Ravens, especially at home. The 49ers’ bread-and-butter is their running game. With Baltimore’s run “D” ranked 5th, San Francisco might have trouble moving the ball at times.
The same can be said about the Baltimore offense, which will be facing a “D” ranked first against the run and in points allowed, giving up an anemic 14.5 points per game. QB Joe Flacco has helped turn Baltimore into a less run-happy team recently and the 49ers “D” is less effective against the pass, ranked 23rd. It will be interesting to see which middling offense will succeed in the face of two stifling defenses.
Both teams have positive momentum going into this game. Baltimore scored a key divisional win over Cincinnati, while the 49ers easily handled the Cardinals. Still, the 49ers are up against it a bit, having to travel all the way to Maryland with little time to prepare. By the time they get acclimated, the game will be impending, whereas Baltimore was at home last week and is settled in and ready to go.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Anyone trying to time it right for a 49ers non-cover can attest to the futility in picking against San Fran this season. Time and again, they have delivered. Their in a bad spot though this week. Having to travel and then play on a short week is a major disadvantage even for the best of teams. There's a reason that the spread hasn't moved lower than a field goal while the world is hammering the niners plus the points. Because Baltimore is going to win and cover and the bookies know it. Don't get sucked into this trap line. Bet the Ravens minus the points.
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