San Francisco 49ers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
NFL Week 1
Date/Time: Sunday, September 9/4:25 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field/Green Bay, WI
by Evergreen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: San Francisco +5/Green Bay -5
Over/Under Total: 47
Finally…After a month of unwatchable and downright awful preseason action, the NFL is ready to kickoff the 2012 season for real and the best matchup on the week one slate has the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Ashwaubenon to take on the Green Bay Packers. There you go, Green Bay doesn’t even play in Green Bay and now you have a trivia answer that you probably didn’t have before. Getting back to business, most think we are looking at potential preview of the NFC Championship game as both the Niners and Packers have the look of championship contenders. It is quite the contrast in styles though as San Fran relies on its stout defense to win games while Green Bay is one the premier offensive teams in the league, especially through the air.
The offshore betting sites like Green Bay and installed the Pack as 6-point favorites although the line has moved more commonly to 5 as of Wednesday. San Francisco is on the money line at +190 with Green Bay at -230 and the over/under total for the game hovers at 46 or 47.
The Niners are looking to take that last step forward from a 2011 season that ended with a 13-3 regular season mark and a very close 20-17 loss to the eventual Superbowl Champion New York Giants. The front office flirted with Peyton Manning in the offseason but that never came to substance and Alex Smith is back at the helm. Smith probably can’t feel too great about his bosses looking to replace him after his best season to date but they did get him some help through the draft and free agency. Mario Manningham and Randy Moss add veteran playmaking ability to the WR group and A.J. Jenkins and LaMichael James were drafted to add pressure and stretch opposing defenses. If Moss can find some sort of form like he displayed with the Patriots, he could take plenty of coverage from Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis and the Niners could have a much improved offense that already features a strong running game led by Frank Gore.
Green Bay needed no additional help scoring points and chose to shore up their defense in the offseason after they were downed by the Giants in the Divisional round by a 37-20 margin. The Pack stormed to a 15-1 mark, losing only at Kansas City, and is motivated to get back to the Superbowl after suffering what was ultimately a disappointing season. Casey Hayward, Jerel Worthy and Nick Perry were all high round draft picks and all should see significant time this year in Green Bay’s 3-4 defense. Rookies take time to produce on most occasions so look for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and B.J. Raji to shoulder most of the load in the early going. Jeff Saturday was Green Bay’s big free agent signing and the veteran center now has the privilege of guarding today’s best signal caller in Aaron Rodgers after snapping it to Peyton Manning for all those seasons. Cedric Benson was added late in camp and grabbed the starting running back spot although no one is really expecting the Packers to turn into a run first team with guys like Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and JerMichael Finley to throw to.
A five or six point line in 2011 would be a near slam dunk for the Packers at home as last year’s Niner offense just didn’t have the gas to keep up with what was one of the best scoring offenses in NFL history. With improvements at the skill positions for San Francisco and a still underwhelming Green Bay defense, this one has the makings of great game that could turn into a bit of a shootout.
Green Bay’s offensive line did not look great in the preseason and Rodgers was on the run early and often so getting to the quarterback should be a focal point for the Niners. The problem there is that there are too many good receivers to cover and Rodgers is too good of a scrambler to not make you pay for sending extra rushers. With that being said, I feel that this will be a very close game. Since 3 and 4 point margins makeup a large percentage of NFL final scores, you have to take the points here. I do believe GB gets the win, but SF gets the money. Good luck!
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers +5.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.