San Diego Chargers (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. New York Giants (5-3 SU,
4-3-1 ATS), Week 9 NFL, 4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 8, 2009, Giants Stadium,
East Rutherford, N.J., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chargers +4.5/Giants -4.5
Over/Under: 47.5
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The New York Giants will try and end a three game slide with a little home cooking back in Giants Stadium when they welcome the San Diego Chargers for a Sunday afternoon clash on CBS.
The G-men were embarrassed and humiliated on the road last weekend in Philly against the NFC East rival Eagles, falling behind 30-7 by halftime of what turned into a 40-17 whoopin’. It’s a good thing the Yankees have distracted fans in New York, otherwise the Giants would be facing a bigger mutiny for three straight lackluster performances punctuated with the biggest dud of them all last week in Philly.
The Chargers come into Sunday’s game riding a modest two-game winning streak, but before you get all warm and cozy inside remember that they came against the weak sisters of the AFC West, Kansas City and Oakland. Last week’s 24-16 victory at home over the Raiders was less then spectacular, but it moved them back above .500 for the season and back within striking distance of the Broncos in the AFC West standings.
Oddsmaker opened the game with New York as 4-point favorites at home, but the early action on the game has moved the line up the hook to 4.5 at a large majority of offshore sportsbooks. There are quite a few books that have moved the number up a full point to Giants -5.
The over/under total opened at 47.5 and has yet to move, although there are a few 48s currently on the board (at Sportsbetting.com and Planet Hollywood) and even one 47 (at Pinnacle), so you can move the half-point in either direction if you so choose.
Sunday’s game could be a crucial one for quarterback Eli Manning and Giants offense. Manning has thrown six interceptions during the three- game losing streak and was even called out by head coach Tom Coughlin this week when he said Manning had to be more of a leader, so there’s a lot riding on his shoulders this week.
And let’s not forget that the Giants opponent this week currently employs the quarterback they traded away to get Manning, Philip Rivers, so there will undoubtedly be comparisons made between the two signal callers all game long, especially if Manning continues to struggle.
Despite their recent woes the Giants still have the league’s 5th- ranked offense (386.9 ypg), but they still rely on the strong running attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to gain most of that yardage (141.8 ypg – 7th).
On the other sideline the Chargers are clearly Rivers’ team, as his passing ability has turned the Bolts into a pass-first offense (276.3 ypg – 4th). In fact, what in the world has happened to LaDainian Tomlinson? The running back that once owned the NFL now barely sniffs 100-yard games and instead leads the league’s 31st-ranked rushing attack at a measly 74.7 yards per game.
This week could be the week the running games take over though, for both teams, since both defenses struggle to stop the run. The Giants are 20th allowing 114.2 yards a contest, whereas the Chargers are 27th allowing 132.1 yards per game.
It will also be interesting to see if the Giants and their secondary can limit Rivers and the Chargers in the passing game as well, since the G-men are currently ranked 2nd overall allowing just 163.9 yards in the air per game. The Chargers also sport a strong secondary, ranked 6th at 178.4 yards per game.
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These two haven’t met on the gridiron since the 2005 season, a game the Chargers won 45-23 out in sunny California. They haven’t played in New York since the 1995 season, a game also won by the Chargers, 27-17. All told they’ve only played five games going back to 1986 and the Giants hold a slim 3-2 SU edge, as well as a slim 3-2 ATS edge.
San Diego has struggled to cover on the road lately, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games away from Qualcomm. But the Giants haven’t exactly been printing money for bettors either, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at home against teams with a winning record.
The strongest betting trend for this game could be the over, as it is 19-6-3 in the Chargers last 28 road games and 8-3-2 in their last 13 games overall. The over is also 3-1-1 in the Giants last five games overall and is a strong 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven games in November.
Badger’s Pick: Both teams will try and run against weak run defenses, which means a continuous clock and less offensive possessions. Take the under of 47.5.
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