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Seattle Seahawks (11-6) +8, 41 O/U at Green Bay Packers (13-3) -8,
41 O/U, Lambeau Field, 4:30 PM Eastern, Saturday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Two teams who are very familiar with each other will face off in a NFC Divisional Playoff game Saturday when the Seattle Seahawks travel to play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
Seattle is not only coached by former Green Bay leader Mike Holmgren, but Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was also a longtime backup to Packers quarterback Brett Favre before leaving to run the show in Seattle. The Seahawks defeated Washington, 35-14, in the opening round of the NFL playoffs last weekend to set up another playoff meeting in Green Bay this week.
Green Bay, who earned an opening round bye with a surprising 13-3 regular season record, won their final game of the regular season with a 34-13 decision over Detroit. The Packers have defeated the Seahawks in a playoff game in Lambeau before, a 33-27 overtime victory back in 2004.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas opened the game with the Packers as a 9- point favorite, with an over/under total of 40.5.
The Packers have enjoyed one of their best seasons ever under a resurgent and refreshed Brett Favre and second-year head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has gotten Favre to buy into his system and it has produced the 2nd best overall offense in the NFL (370.8 ypg). Favre (4,157 yds., 28 TDs) has a strong unit of receivers that has allowed him to post the NFL’s 2nd best passing offense (271 ypg) and he has taken care of the interceptions (only 15) that seemed to plague him late in his career. The Packers have also found a running game with Ryan Grant (956 yds., 8 TDs) in the second half of the season and are 4th overall in scoring with a 27.2 points per game average.
Seattle’s offense, which once featured the slashing running style of former MVP Shaun Alexander, now relies entirely on the throwing of Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck (3,966 yds., 28 TDs) also has a strong contingent of receivers, which has led coach Holmgren to abandon the thought of run-first, pass-second, and has allowed the Seahawks to become the NFL’s 8th best passing offense at 247.8 yards per game. Alexander (716 yds., 4 TDs) is missing the burst he once had, and the lack of the running game has made the Seahawks slip down the ranks in most the NFL offensive statistical categories (20th in rushing – 101.7 ypg; 10th in scoring – 24.6 ppg).
The Packers defense is middle of the pack in the NFL statistically (11th overall – 313.3 ypg; 12th vs. pass – 210.2 ypg; 14th vs. run – 103.1 ypg), but it produced better results earlier in the season before injuries started to take its toll late. They feature one of the league’s best cornerback tandems in Al Harris and Charles Woodson, who both love to play the bump-n-run style versus receivers. The Packers should be able to match up well versus the pass-happy Seahawk offense, as ends Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila provide enough of a pass rush to allow Harris and Woodson time to disrupt the timing of the short “West-Coast” passing style of Holmgren. Overall the Packers have allowed just 18.2 points per game, good enough for 6th overall in the NFL.
Seattle’s defense is also mediocre when it comes to stats (15th overall – 321.8 ypg; 19th vs. pass – 219.1 ypg; 12th vs. run – 102.8 ypg), but it does possess a lot of speed in the front seven which can cause match up problems at times. End Patrick Kearney led the NFL in sacks with 14.5, and linebackers Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu are fast and athletic enough to cover lots of ground both in the running and passing game. On the season the Seahawks allowed an average of 18.2 points per game, just one spot behind the Packers for 7th in the NFL.
The two teams have met four times since the Packers won that playoff game back in 2004, with both teams winning twice straight up. Ironically, both teams have covered the number once, with two pushes in those four games, and they have also gone 2-2 versus the total in those four games as well.
For the season Green Bay has been a gold mine for bettors, going a staggering 12-3-1 ATS with a rock-solid 7-1 ATS mark at Lambeau. The Packers resurgent offense under Favre has also been a solid over bet as well, going 12-4 on the season overall, with a 5-3 mark at home.
Seattle was also a solid wager for bettors this season, going 10-7 ATS with the first week of the playoffs included. They are not he greatest road team though (3-5 ATS), and the are more likely to fall under the total as their 8-9 record on the season would indicate. The Seahawks do tend to go over the total as a road underdog though, as the over is 6-2 in their last 8 games in that scenario.
Both teams sport some solid betting trends of late, with Seattle going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and their last 9 games versus the NFC. While the Packers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games versus an NFC opponent.
Early money has been on the Seahawks, as the line has already dropped down a full point with the Packers now an 8-point favorite at most sportsbooks. Be sure and shop around for the number you like, as a few Las Vegas sportsbooks have moved it to Packers -7.5, while there are still some offshore sportsbooks listing the original Packers -9 number. The total of 40.5 is slightly up to 41, but most bettors will be waiting until later in the week to see what the Green Bay weather forecast looks like for game time. Seattle is a +340 on the moneyline, while the Packers are a -370.
Badger’s Pick: The Packers at Lambeau in the playoffs used to be a lock, but that’s not the case anymore. With sun in the forecast for Saturday afternoon, I like the over of 41 (41.5 at some books) as the best bet in this game. In the end, I like the Packers secondary versus the Seattle passing game better then I like the Seahawks secondary versus the Packers passing game. Wait a few more days to see if the number drops more than it already has, then take the Packers minus the points in this one.
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