San Francisco 49ers (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-7 SU, 9-4-1 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, NFL Week 16, Saturday, December 24, 2011, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington, TV: Fox
by Scotty L, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SF -1.5/SEA +1.5
Over/Under Total: 38
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The San Francisco 49ers make the trip north to face the surging Seattle Seahawks on Saturday afternoon. San Fran faces a short week, following a big win against the Steelers on Monday to go to 11-3. The Seahawks are coming off a 38-14 stomping of the Bears in Chicago on Sunday and look forward to exacting some revenge on the Niners, who beat Seattle 33-17 in week 1.
Seattle’s win on Sunday as they evened the slate at 7-7 perhaps enlightened fans who hadn’t been paying attention that the Seahawks are one of the top teams in the second-half of the season. They have won 3 straight and 5 of 6. They have only failed to cover the spread twice since week 2. Suddenly, they find themselves in the midst of a revived season that has given this team hope for the future that looked so bleak a few months ago.
This season has seen a number of supposedly-down teams like Seattle thrive in the second half, while some squads with presumably better players struggle. Seattle has shown the value in the team dynamic and good coaching. Their quarterback is Tarvaris Jackson. Their two big offensive weapons are RB Marshawn Lynch and rookie Doug Baldwin--not exactly a marquee lineup. But Lynch has really been something, now over 1000 yards for the season with almost all of that coming in the last 7 games.
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Facing the top-ranked defense against the run might slow Lynch a bit. After all, the 49ers have incredibly given up zero rushing touchdowns this season. Seattle might need to take to the air more than they would like, but with 9 receivers with double-digit receptions, Seattle in not without options. Jackson only has 12 touchdown passes in 12 starts, but the Seahawks won’t have to worry about winning a shootout with the methodical 49ers.
Monday’s night performance was vintage 49ers--an efficiently-run offense with a stifling defense that leads the league in take-aways. Roethlisberger was hobbled, but did have over 300 yards in the air. The San Francisco secondary can give up a lot of yards, but the points they give up don’t always reflect that, leading the league with a paltry 13.2 points allowed per game. QB Alex Smith, flowering under the Harbaugh regime, was 18-31 with 187 yards and a touchdown. Frank Gore, perhaps poised for a late-season spurt, also ran for a touchdown.
After losing 2 of 3 following a 9-1 start, San Francisco needed Monday’s win to avoid looking like a team that peaked early, only to peter out at the end. While they still struggle offensively in the red zone, this is a team that has a lot going for them. Smith takes care of the ball and does his job, coming through when it counts the most. His playmakers usually answer the call. They now face the stiff challenge of going into Seattle (a tough place to play) against a team that has given up a mere 71 points in their past 5 games, while doubling that output offensively.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With the Seahawks clinging to playoff hopes, it’s easy to assume they will be at a more heightened mental state than the 49ers, who locked up their playoff dreams weeks ago. It doesn’t always work out that way. While Seattle might be playing with more urgency, that doesn’t always translate to success. After a 2-6 start, they started playing well without the playoff component really figuring into it. Becoming preoccupied about those matters could potentially make them tighter and less effective.
The 49ers might have trouble finding the end zone against a peaking Seattle defense. Like a boxer who is winning the fight, San Francisco could take the second-to-the-last round off, to set up for a big finish. That could be a faulty notion for a team that comes to play every week like the Niners. But they will be facing a nasty Seattle “D” that will be pumped up by the reinvigorated home crowd. If the San Francisco offense is forced to overly rely on their defense for scoring and field position, points could be hard to come by. Take the Seattle Seahawks plus 1.5 points.
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