San Francisco 49ers (6-1 SU, 6-0-1 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 9, Sunday, November 6, 2011, FedExField, Landover, Maryland, TV: Fox
by Scotty L, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SF -4/Wash +4
Over/Under Total: 39
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The San Francisco 49ers look to continue their winning ways when they take on the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon. Fans and bettors supporting the Niners are riding high, with San Francisco winning 6 of 7 games and a mere push separating them from being perfect at the betting windows. The Redskins were looking good after a 3-1 start, but 3 straight losses have left them searching for answers heading into Sunday’s game.
A 23-0 loss at Buffalo on Sunday was Washington’s 3rd straight loss and non-cover. As mere 4-point underdogs, a lot more was certainly expected. Their 26 yards rushing underscores their lack of a meaningful running attack with inconsistent quarterback play also hurting, with John Beck not getting the job done on Sunday.
With the offense dormant, the Redskins “D,” which had been good at times this season, was not in the game against the Bills. Inopportune penalties and blown coverages led to big plays and poor tackling gave way to some costly break-aways. Watching Bills’ RB Fred Jackson have his way with this group makes one wonder how they will cope with 49ers RB Frank Gore--one of the hottest backs in the league.
S.F. has established itself as one of better teams of the first half of 2011. And unlike other teams of that mold, there is not much divergence in this team’s performance from week to week. With other teams, there have been weeks where the scores force you to do a double-take. But the Niners have been resolute, motivated to produce each week without mental let-up. After a string of demanding victories, one might have expected a down-week against Cleveland on Sunday. While not at their best, they got the job done and won 20-10, though some late-betting backers may have been bit by a rising point spread, which ended up being higher than 10 at some places.
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Now at home, the Redskins are in many ways playing to save their season. Falling to 3-5 makes the playoffs an overly-steep climb. If the bleeding is to stop, it has to be this week. People are playing for their jobs--both players and coaches alike. Though that same sentiment should have led to a better performance than a shutout at the hands of Buffalo, they are still a home team playing for their season against a group that can absorb a setback at this point.
Waiting for San Francisco to have a letdown and betting on black because 3 straight reds have come out can be costly maneuvers. The San Francisco defense is leading the league in points allowed--not promising for a Washington offense which has really been struggling. And even if the Niners’ secondary has been dicey at times, the Redskins might not be able to establish any balance to make that a relevant liability. Some of the league’s more potent passing attacks might be able to trouble San Francisco, as Tony Romo did in week 2. Whether a middling Redskins passing attack can manage it is iffy.
The 49ers have an identity now. The players know their roles and the cast has been good enough to become the up-and-coming team of the year. The Redskins, meanwhile, are undecided on their quarterback, with a win over lowly St. Louis representing their only success since September 18. Two of their top offensive weapons, WR Santana Moss and RB Tim Hightower, are out. So if the Redskins are going to get it together, the defense is going to need to step up in a big way. While they faltered against Buffalo and haven’t been terribly clutch for the past several weeks, they are still giving up an average of less than 20 points per game.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The 49ers are not a great offensive team and if a home Redskins defense can keep them in line, it’s not too difficult to imagine a tight game. A non-divisional road game on the heels of 5 straight wins and covers facing a desperate team might just be the spot for the 49ers to fail to cover for the first time this season. That’s a dangerous game to play, but look for the Redskins to keep it close and at least cover the spread. I'm betting the Washington Redskins plus the 4 points.
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