St. Louis Rams (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, NFL Week 7, Sunday, October 23, 2011, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas, TV: Fox
by Scotty L, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Stl +12.5/DAL -12.5
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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The St. Louis Rams travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys in a battle of two struggling NFC teams. The 2-3 hard-luck Cowboys need a win if they are hoping to salvage a sagging season. The Rams are just trying to get things pointed in a positive direction after an 0-5 start that includes zero covers.
Word out of St. Louis at the beginning of the year was promising, leading some to expect a resurgence of sorts. To say things haven’t gone that way would be an understatement, as we are looking at a winless team in week 7. Though it’s certainly not all his fault, QB Sam Bradford has not shown much growth from his rookie campaign, throwing barely over 50% completions and a meager 3 touchdowns.
Bradford was hurt in Sunday’s 24-3 loss to Green Bay. The high ankle sprain is worse than originally suspected, as the young quarterback is missing practices and wearing a boot. The Rams were surely buoyed by the acquisition of Brandon Lloyd this week, but Bradford’s status is still a bit murky heading late into the week. If he can’t go, A.J. Feeley will play. If Bradford gets the call, he will need his legs against the Dallas pass rush.
It is hard to find a lot of good things to say about the Rams at this point. They are dead-last in the league averaging 9.8 points per game. They are also last in rushing yards allowed, and 30th in points and total yards allowed. The running back duo of Cadillac Williams (54-226-0) and Steven Jackson (41-220-1) has been OK, but one rushing touchdown is hardly enough to compensate for a passing game that has been unproductive. Then again, pass catchers like Danario Alexander (14-287-1) and Brandon Gibson (17-214-1) will likely benefit from the arrival of Lloyd.
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Dallas has faced the task of not only recovering from losses, but trying to shake off giving up leads late, which have led to several heartbreaks already in this young season. In week one, the Cowboys were up 24-10 to the Jets in the 4th quarter, only to lose 27-24. In week 4, after a pair of consecutive wins, they were leading Detroit 27-3 in the second half, eventually losing the game 34-30. Then last week, after a bye, they led the Patriots in the 4th-quarter before giving up a last-second touchdown and losing the game.
The silver lining is that those are good teams and Dallas was at least good enough to build up leads against those squads. Then again, they were bad enough to blow it. Dallas needs more balance. They are killing themselves with penalties and are awful on third down when it really matters. Sometimes, they seem to lack creativity, unable to get the ball to their best athletes especially when they’re in a pinch.
Tony Romo is averaging over 300 yards per game in the air with a completion percentage of over 65%. TE Jason Witten (31-414-2) and WRs Miles Austin (21-307-4) and Dez Bryant (14-249-3) are nice options, but at 2-3, this hasn’t been the most clutch group. They are explosive at times, but in giving up big leads, have not shown the most mettle when called upon to produce in crisis situations.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a toughie. They all are, but you can make equally-salient cases for both sides. Dallas, on one hand, is at home, and not likely to give up another big lead to a visiting and winless St. Louis team with a hurting quarterback. Then again, 12.5 is an awfully big number to lay on a 2-3 team that has recently disappointed more than they’ve pleased. The Vegas boys are probably eager to get the Rams a cover and the point spread reflects this sentiment a bit.
For all their woes, the Rams have been scheduled awfully tough. They got a boost from acquiring a top receiver, and their secondary isn’t so bad. It’s difficult to endorse them with Bradford’s status still cloudy, but look for them to stay in the game enough to cover the big number. Take the St. Louis Rams plus 12.5 points.
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