St. Louis Rams (2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-7 SU, 7-4-1 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 14 NFL, MNF, December 12, 2011, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Wash., TV: ESPN
by Badger, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Stl +9/SEA -9
Over/Under Total: 38
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This week’s game on Monday Night Football is about as far from must-see TV as you can possibly get as far as the NFL goes, but nonetheless we’ll all watch and try to pick the winning side when the St. Louis Rams travel to CenturyLink Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a meaningless NFC West contest on ESPN.
The fans in St. Louis sure would like the Rams to win and take their minds off the fact they lost Albert Pujols this week, but with quarterbacks dropping like flies the Rams are in no such position to do so. With starter Sam Bradford still gimpy with a bad ankle (questionable, but hasn’t practiced all week) and backup A.J. Feely out with a bad thumb, it looks like the Rams will be forced to start Tom Brandstater at QB on Sunday.
Who is Tom Brandstater you ask?
Brandstater, the two-year player from Fresno State has been mostly a practice player his whole career, was recently signed off the Rams practice squad and has yet to even throw an NFL pass yet alone start and NFL game … on the road. If Bradford can’t go, and Brandstater tinkles in his shoes and can’t handle the pressure the Rams also signed Kellen Clemens a few days ago to be an insurance policy.
With issues at the most important position on the team, it’s seems unlikely that the Rams will be able to stop their three-game losing streak in Seattle in primetime Monday. The Rams generated only 157 yards of total offense last week in a 26-0 loss at San Francisco, so if things didn’t look bleak to begin with they are certainly not much better this week. And at 2-10 and tied with Minnesota for the worst record in the NFC, the long winter in St. Louis just got a whole lot longer with the loss of Pujols from their beloved Cardinals lingering well into the spring.
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Seattle is dealing with their own injury issues of late, especially along the offensive line where the Seahawks have lost three starters (Russell Okung, James Carpenter and John Moffitt) in three consecutive weeks.
It didn’t hurt them so much last week when they blasted the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night football, 31-14. Marshawn Lynch was a beast on the ground (148 yards, 2 TD) and the Seahawks defense picked off four Eagles passes to score their fifth win of the season as a home dog (Philly was favored by 3). Surprisingly, the win was the Seahawks third in their last four tries, as they are once again putting a late-season run at relevance.
But at 5-7 the Seahawks aren’t going anywhere in the NFC West or in the NFC playoff race for that matter, although if they were to win out the rest of the season they could climb their way back into the wild card hunt. With games against West rivals San Francisco and at Arizona still on the schedule they’d need to take their play to another level to pull it off, a level of play they haven’t been able to get to all season.
With all of the injury issues and quarterback questions the oddsmakers never released a point spread on the Monday Night Football game until late on Friday, starting the opening number with Seattle as 10-point favorites at home. There are a few online sportsbooks that have moved the spread up to minus -10.5, and one that is all the way up to -11.5 (5Dimes), so it appears that nobody is willing to take a shot on Brandstater and ride the Rams this week.
The over/under total opened at 37 and is still sitting right there at all of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas, but almost all of the offshore sportsbooks have dropped the number by the hook to list the total at 36.5 to take the push out of play.
Offensively this game might be tough to watch.
The Seahawks were only averaging 18 points a game (26th in NFL) prior to last week’s 31-point outburst, and with quarterback injuries of their own and a severely dinged up offensive line the offense is still under 300 yards a game of total offense (298.5 ypg – 28th).Who knows what the Rams will do on offense because who knows who will be taking the snaps under center. Bradford has missed three games, but even with him the Rams were far from a juggernaut since their 11.7 points per game average is dead last in the NFL. If Brandstater has to play, I’d find it hard to believe that the Rams unit will take off under him with only a week’s worth of practices to get him ready for the role.
Plus, the Seahawks defense is no push over. Ranked 14th in yards allowed (340 ypg) and 12th in scoring (20.5 ppg), the Seahawks are strongest against the run (104 ypg – 11th), so it’s not like the Rams can get away with just pounding away with running back Stephen Jackson all night.
St. Louis’ defense is the opposite, ranked 32nd against the run (157 ypg), so it looks like Lynch will see his share of carries on Monday. With end Chris Long (ankle) listed as questionable, the Rams may be a little shorthanded too.
Seattle won at St. Louis earlier this season, 24-7, back on November 20th in a game that Bradford played in. With only 13 first downs and 185 yards the Rams offensive struggles were apparent back then. The Rams were favored to win by 3-points, making it the second meeting in a row the Seahawks covered the spread with a straight up win as dogs.
The Seahawks have covered in eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings (0-4 ATS at Seattle), making them a solid wager for betting trend players. Seattle is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Monday Night games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the NFC West, and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite at home in CenturyLink Field.
Historically the under has been a solid trend play in this series, going 4-1-1 in the last six meetings and 5-2 in the last seven games played at Seattle. But the over may turn out to be the better trend play since the over is 5-1-1 in the Rams last seven MNF games, and 14-4 in Seattle’s last 18 vs. the NFC, 5-0 at home and 5-2 on MNF.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m going to wait till late on Monday to hear if Bradford has made a miracle recovery and will play, but even if he does I’m still leaning toward a play on Seattle. Double-digit points scare me, but if the Rams are forced to play with a practice player at QB against a tough Seahawks defense I don’t know how in the world they are going to score. I’m betting Seattle minus the points.
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