Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 24th 2016, at 8:30pm EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
by Bob, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:PIT -7.5/ IND +7.5
Thursday night when you wake up from the turkey coma, tune into NBC for the Thanksgiving night game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts. This to me is the Mediocre Bowl with both teams coming in at 5-5 overall and both on the outside looking in at the AFC Playoffs, but both teams are still alive and well with this game being important coming down the stretch.
After the announcement that Andrew Luck will not be playing in this one, the line has gone from the Steelers as a three point favorite to them being 7.5 point faves on the road. The total pointswere originally 52.5 but is now at 48 on most betting boards. The action now has shown that most of the money is still being placed on the Steelers. 65% of the documented action had the Pittsburgh Steelers covering the spread on the road and as for the total points, the public likes the score to stay under the 48. Only 44% of the action has come in on the over at this time. Just like their actual win/loss records, both of these teams are right at .500 against the spread in 2016. This game is extremely hard to predict because of the up and down play of the Steelers very talented quarterback, and the lack of experience running this offense by expected Colts starter Scott Tolzien.
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I did some mini research on some trends with these teams and just as you know, there was no glaring trend that made me think either team was the play early on. Indianapolis has gone 8-0 in their last eight games played in the month of November ye the Steelers have gone 4-1 against the spread when coming off of a double digit win. Meaningless stats, I know. So, I digress, lets break this down the best we can.
Any time I am asked to write a prediction of a Colts game, I say the same thing, what a disappointment. For two years now I seriously thought it was going to be Indianapolis' year to make a run to an AFC title and again, they are sitting at 5-5 and 2nd place in the AFC South behind the Houston Texans. Statistically, the Colts are just as average as their record. They do have a top ten scoring offense, but their scoring defense does not crack the NFL top 25. This is much of the problem with this team thus far in 2016. The Colts have allowed their opponents to score 30 or more points in four games this season. All four of those games resulted in a loss. If the defense could tighten up, the Colts could potentially be the team that I have expected them to be. This Thursday night, again, defense is key. Pittsburgh is beginning to click on offense and if the Colts again allow them to score in the 30s, I do not think Indy will have the fire power to keep up. The Colts defense needs to shut down Le'Veon Bell and the run game forcing Big Ben to have to throw. If the Colts pressure Roethlisberger they could have a shot to come away with the home win and cover.
The Steelers have lost four of their last five games and the only win was this past week against the Cleveland Browns, yawn. Pittsburgh in my opinion has zero business being a favorite over anyone with a pulse, much less on the road. How can Pittsburgh go into Lucas Oil Stadium and get the win? Here's how. Score. Just like everyone else has done that beat the Colts. Big Ben and Company does have the ability to score and that is what they will need to do Thursday night. Pittsburgh is averaging just at 28 points per game and I think that is a pretty solid number for this week. The Colts we know are no world beaters either and from what you have read here, you can tell that I seriously have nothing great to say about either team.
My opinion on this game is completely different now that Andrew Luck is out. I was ready to pounce on the Colts moneyline, not just against the original three point spread, but now I think the Steelers may just be too strong. I like Pittsburgh to win a 30-20 type contest on Thanksgiving night.
Bob's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7.5
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