Super Bowl 44: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview and Pick

Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS), 6:25 p.m. EST, Sunday, February 7, 2010, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Fla., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Saints +5/Colts -5
Over/Under: 55.5

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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will get second chance for a Super Bowl ring in Miami, but he’ll be opposed by a shorter, cloned version of himself this time around when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints take on the Colts in Super Bowl 44 in newly named Sun Life Stadium on February 7th.

The city of New Orleans and the state of Louisiana is still partying following the Saints overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game Sunday, 31-28, clinching the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl appearance in it’s 43-year history.

The Saints were able to force five Vikings turnovers, the last one being an interception of a Brett Favre pass that took away the Vikings chance at a long game-winning field goal try. New Orleans won the coin toss in overtime, drove the ball down the field converting a key fourth-and-inches play along the way and won it on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal to put the Bayou into a frenzy.

The machine that is Manning and the Colts needed a few quarters to get used to the New York Jets blitz schemes on Sunday, but once they did it was business as usual in their 30-17 victory over the Jets in the AFC Championship game.

As Manning and the offense rolled up 24 unanswered points to close the first half and finish the second half, the unheralded Colts defense limited the Jets running game to just 86 yards total and under three yards per carry (2.9) to put the Colts back in Miami for the Super Bowl again, the same venue as their last Super Bowl appearance and victory.

It is actually rather appropriate that these two teams play for the Superbowl title anyway.

As far as sportsbetting goes, this year’s NFL regular season was so heavy in favor of the large chalks week-to-week throughout the regular season that it killed the sportsbooks and has made the public drunk with confidence, so why not have the biggest game of the season come down to the two teams that were the biggest chalk favorites to get to Miami since just a few games into the campaign and make all of the chalk-eaters to this point wet themselves picking a side for Chalk Bowl 44.

With that said, the overnight line following the completion of the Championship games Sunday opened with the Colts as 4-point favorites in Super Bowl 44. But that number didn’t hold very long, as most of the offshore sportsbooks are already up to 4.5 (Pinnacle), 5 (5Dimes, betED, BetUS) or even 5.5 (Bodog) within hours of the opening point spread’s release, which can only mean that the early money is favoring the Colts so far.

The over/under total opened at 56 and despite the quarterbacks and the offensive firepower in this game, the number has moved down the hook (half-point) at most sportsbooks to 55.5 with a few offshore boards showing 55 already.

With Manning and Brees reading defenses and threading needles into tight coverage in the passing game, there’s an instant feel that this game could turn into a shootout of huge proportions. Both teams have so much depth at receiver and at running back, with sturdy offensive lines that protect the quarterback so well, that it’s really hard not to imagine this game goes over the total by halftime.

The obvious difference between these teams comes in the running game, where the Saints use a three-headed unit of Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell to get good enough yardage each week (132 ypg – 6th in NFL) on its own without the deadly passing game. Whereas the Colts seem to run the ball only when Manning checks into it at the line of scrimmage as an audible, or if they’re milking the clock in the second half.

Perhaps the biggest problem in handicapping this game is the fact that both teams have the capability to strike instantly, which means that no lead is safe no matter how big or small. If the game comes down to special teams, the game-changing speed of Bush in the return game and the stronger legs of Thomas Morstead and Garrett Hartley in the kicking game give the edge to the Saints.

If the cliché that defense wins championships is to hold true this season, then one of these teams units will have to step up on Super Bowl Sunday.

On paper, the Saints opportunistic defense and their seven defensive touchdowns during the regular season would look like the type of game- changing unit that could turn in that type of game. They forced the Vikings to put the ball on the carpet six times last week and recovered three of them, so they’re also good at ball-hawking around the pile.

But they were also exposed a little in the secondary against the Vikings, especially Tracey Porter prior to his game-ending interception. Let’s not forget at one point the Saints were starting Chris McAllister and Mike McKenzie at corner, two guys who didn’t have jobs before the season and don’t have jobs now, so the Colts and Manning will likely be able to take advantage of matchups against the Saints nickel and dime backs (Randall Gay and Malcolm Jenkins) of the Saints.

The Colts defense has been underrated all season, but they can’t be overlooked anymore. They held the Jets No. 1 running attack to under 100 yards last week, so they’ll likely be able to rise to the challenge of the Saints diverse passing offense this time out. Perhaps the most impressive job though has been done by defensive coordinator Larry Coyer and his staff, who in two playoff games so far have yet to give up any second-half points. Talk about making great adjustments.

These two teams have met a few times over the years, with the last two ending in blowout fashion in early September games, and both of them being won by the Colts. Indy thumped the Saints at home the last time these two played, 41-10, back in 2007. They also thumped them again back in 2003, 55-21, in a September game in the Superdome.

Both games also ended with the Colts covering the point spread, as 5.5- and 3.5-point favorites in each game, respectively. In fact, the favorite has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams.

As far as recent Super Bowl betting trends go, the favorite is 3-6-1 ATS in the last decade, with the underdog covering in six of the last eight including the last two in a row. The under has gone 6-4 in the decade, including five straight. Keep in mind, if the 55.5 total holds up for this game, it will become the highest total ever in a Super Bowl (the last two Super Bowls both closed at 54).

The Colts of course were in Miami just three years ago, where they beat the Chicago Bears, 29-14, as 7-point favorites at kickoff. That game ended under the total of 48.

Badger’s Pick: If I had to pick a side today, the day after the championship games, I’d take the Saints and the points. I’m not saying I think the Saints win, because Peyton Manning is playing so perfect right now he’s like my Xbox when it doesn’t want me to win … rigged. The Saints just have too much firepower to not be in this game. Colts win in a 35-31 shootout. Take the Saints to cover the spread at plus +5 points.

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