Tennessee Titans (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (5-4 SU, 5-3-1
ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 11 Monday Night Football, November 23, 2009, Reliant Stadium,
Houston, Texas, TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Titans +4.5/Texans -4.5
Over/Under: 48
Bet this game using your credit card at a bookie that WILL get it to work and give you a generous sign up bonus as well: BetUS.
The streaking Tennessee Titans will try and make it four in a row when they travel to Houston to take on the rival Houston Texans in Reliant Stadium on Monday Night Football this week, in an important AFC South Division matchup that will determine if the Texans can stay in the AFC playoff picture in the second half.
The Titans enter the primetime affair on a three-game win streak that includes last week’s 41-17 thumping of Buffalo, a victory that prompted the ole’ two-middle-finger salute from Titans owner Bud Adams from his luxury box. Adams’ antics will cost him, but he should be commended for speaking out about quarterback Vince Young, because the Titans are 3-0 since Adams “called” for him to be the starter in an already lost 0-6 season.
But while the Titans are playing for pride and starting positions, the Texans enter Monday Night’s big show with it’s playoff position and head coach Gary Kubiak’s job on the line the final seven weeks of the season. Houston is coming off of their bye week, and a disappointing but encouraging three-point loss to the undefeated Indianapolis Colts the week before, so anything less than this team’s 100-percent effort and focus is expected out of Kubiak and the Texans, or else.
There has been a little line movement in this game early in the week as the oddsmakers in Las Vegas adjusted the point spread to the early action at the window. The Texans originally opened the game as 3.5- point favorites at home in Reliant Stadium, but the line moved a full point rather quickly as most sportsbooks now list the game at Houston minus -4.5. There are even a few offshore sportsbooks all the way up to Texans -5 already (5Dimes, BoDog, betED).
Unlike the point spread, the over/under total for Monday’s game has hardly budged all week opening at 48 and still sitting right there at most sportsbooks with a scant few 48.5s (BetUS and Pinnacle Sportsbook).
It’s very hard to pin all of the Titans success on offense to the switch at quarterback from Kerry Collins to Young, but the added running threat with Young under center has helped to open things up for Chris Johnson.
Johnson has run for 495 yards and six touchdowns since Young took over, and he’s taken on an increased role in the passing game too as more screens and check downs are used to keep the pressure off of Young trying to do too much. Johnson’s emergence as the Titans franchise back has helped Young put up solid numbers (507 yards, 65 comp.%, 2TD-2INT) during the three-game streak.
The Texans offense is based around quarterback Matt Schaub and the passing game, which is why the Texans are 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game at 283.7. With tight end Owen Daniels gone for the rest of the season Schaub will be even more dependent on Andre Johnson outside, plus the return of Kevin Walter to health in the slot.
The problem for the Texans on offense is that they often become too reliant on the passing game, which is why the running game suffers (28th – 91.2 ypg). Steve Slaton has had fumbling issues, which is why Ryan Moats has emerged as the go-to back late in games.
The good thing for the Texans offense is that they might not have to establish the run this week, since the Titans defense is ranked 30th overall and 31st versus the pass (270.4 ypg), this one on paper looks like a blatant mismatch. Corner Cortland Finnegan has returned to the lineup recently, so the secondary is getting healthy and better as the season goes on.
Houston’s defense has struggled at times as well, ranking 15th in scoring (20.9 ppg) and 17th overall (332.1 ypg). Rookie Brian Cushing is becoming a playmaker at linebacker, which could mean better days ahead for end Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans and crew.
Houston stole a 34-31 victory at Tennessee earlier this year, back on September 20th (week 2). That win was only the Texans second win in the head-to-head series dating all the way back to 2005, as the Titans had rattled off seven straight wins prior to the last two games. Tennessee also holds a 5-2 ATS edge in their last seven, including a 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record on the road at Reliant Stadium.
The over bet has also been riding a solid betting trend of late, going 8-2 in the last 10 games head-to-head and 3-1 in the last four games at Reliant.
Badger’s Pick: With V.Y. back in the State of Texas as the Titans starter I’m expecting some big offense from him and his backfield mate Johnson for Tennessee. But Schaub and the Texans will have no trouble staying with them shootout style. Take the over 48.
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