Tennessee Titans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS), Week 4 NFL, 1 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 2nd, 2011, Cleveland Browns Stadium, (Natural Grass), Cleveland Ohio
by Jeff Hochman, NFL Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Ten +1/Clev -1
Over/Under Total: 39
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The Cleveland Browns look to win its third straight game when they face the up-start Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
Last Sunday, the Browns defeated Miami 17-16 as 1-point home underdogs in a very thrilling ending. It was not a thing of beauty as the Browns were out-gained by 89 yards. Sophomore quarterback Colt McCoy threw the winning touchdown with less than 1 minute to go in the game. McCoy finished 19 of 39 for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
Good teams find different ways to win and that's exactly what the Titans did last Sunday vs. the Broncos. They were down 7-0 early and 14-10 going into the fourth quarter. Hasselbeck threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Daniel Graham with 4:24 left, and the Titans rallied for a 17-14 victory after losing the AFC's top receiver in the second quarter when his right knee buckled underneath him. Kenny Britt is Out for the Year and now my fantasy team is all banged up.
The Cleveland Browns have played a very easy schedule to this point, as they have played Cincinnati (1-2), Miami (0-3) and the Manning-less Colts (0-3), who combine for a 1-8 SU record with the only victory between them coming against these Browns! Cleveland has been out-gained in five of their last six games including the preseason.
MAKE THE TITANS A +21 POINT UNDERDOG BY PLACING THEM INTO A 20 POINT FOOTBALL TEASER AT 5DIMES
The Titans will bring the better offense, defense, and special teams into this game. In fact, the defense has been outstanding giving up just 261 yards and 14.3 points per game. The Browns are allowing 316 yards and 20.7 points per game. Looks like the Browns miss Rob Ryan, who is now with the Cowboys. Tennessee has been winning behind an impressive defense that’s held all 3 of their opponents to 16 points or less. They should make it tough for the Brown’s new west coast offense to move the ball on, as Cleveland has struggled to average just 289 offensive yards per game behind second-year QB Colt McCoy. The running game has gone in the tank with the absence of Peyton Hillis. He is listed as probable but should have a tough time against a good Titans' run defense.
This contest should come down to quarterback play like most NFL games do. Matt Hasselbeck has a QB rating of 102.2 while Colt McCoy checks in at 78.4. One interesting stat is that Hasselbeck is averaging 8.32 yards per attempt which is better than his Super Bowl appearance season. Colt McCoy has just a 5.71 yards per attempt average. This is a hidden key stat that really helps in handicapping NFL games. When you see 3-yard difference between the two starting QB's, the higher number covers 68.5% on the blind. This game checks in just under that figure, but still looks solid.
The last time these two teams met was back on December 7, 2008 when the Titans at home defeated the Browns 28-9 covering the -14 point spread. The toal sailed over 36.5 points.
The Titans are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games while the Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 tilts.The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road. Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Tennessee Titans +1.
The Titans are a much more experienced crew on both sides of the ball. A stingy defense and a former All-pro quarterback, who has always played well when his two tackles are above average, will spell doom for the home team. The loss of Kenny Britt is a concern, but in most cases the subsitue has a huge performance the very next week. Take the road dog!
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