Tennessee Titans (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Sunday December 18th, 2011. 1:00PM EST. NFL Football Week 15
Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, Ind.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ten -6.5/Indy +6.5
Over/Under Total: 41
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The Tennessee Titans just narrowly missed out on scoring a huge win over the New Orleans Saints last week in a 22-17 loss. After a back and forth game, the Titans failed to put the ball in the end zone from the 5 yard line on 3 separate attempts and QB Jake Locker was sacked as time expired. Still despite the failed effort, the Titans have really played well in recent weeks and will look for that trend to continue as they take their show on the road this week to battle the winless Indianapolis Colts inside Lucas Oil Stadium.
As far as the playoff picture is concerned, the 7-6 Titans are currently on the outside looking in. However, Tennessee has a great chance to win out and make things very interesting in the AFC Wildcard race. For the Titans to ensure wins over the next few weeks, QB Jake Locker must play well. Starting QB Matt Hasselbeck may miss another 1-2 games with a calf injury, but the Titans absolutely cannot afford any more losses. Therefore, Locker must keep the passing game rolling and protect the ball. Locker made a rookie type mistake taking a sack on the final play of the game against the Saints and he must avoid inexperience type mistakes going forward.
One way the Titans will try to help Locker is by a heavy dose of running back Chris Johnson. Remember Johnson got off to an extremely slow start this year, but has had some big outings down the stretch. In fact, Johnson's success on the ground has directly impacted the overall success of the offense. In the last 3 wins, Johnson has averaged 161 yards per game on the ground. In Tennessee's last two losses, Johnson has just 36 yards combined on 23 carries. Therefore, Tennessee must get Johnson going this week against a Colts defense that held Johnson to just 34 yards in their prior meeting this season.
In that prior meeting this season, Indianapolis actually outgained Tennessee 399-311 in terms of total yards. However, turnovers kept the Colts out of serious contention resulting in a 27-10 Titans victory. This week Colts QB Dan Orlovsky will receive his 3rd start of the year. Orlovsky had a huge outing against New England two weeks ago but was brought back to reality last week with a disappointing 17 of 37 passing for 136 yards with 1 pick and 1 touchdown performance in the loss to Baltimore. The Colts simply do not have the resources to run the football to win football games so their offense relies heavily on the passing game hence the Peyton Manning effect. Therefore, Orlovsky must have a better performance this week against Tennessee.
So far this season, Tennessee has given up 240 yards (20th in NFL) per game through the air. Therefore, hopefully things will be a bit easier for Orlovsky and the Indianapolis offense. Wide outs Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne have combined for more than 1,600 yards with 8 scores on the year. Both receivers can big ultimate game changers on the offensive side of the ball, but Orlovsky has to give them a chance at the same time. The major question is will we see the Orlovsky that completed 30 of 37 passing for 353 yards against the Patriots or the quarterback that could not complete but 17 of 37 passing for 136 yards last week to Baltimore?
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Tennessee is playing really well right now and I think this line is just too low. Additionally, Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS this season as underdogs by a touchdown or less. Therefore, I like the Titans to continue to add to the Colts misery again this Sunday. Take Tennessee -6.5.
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