Tennessee Titans (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 5 NFL, Sunday, October 9, 2011, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa., TV: CBS
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ten +3.5/Pit -3.5
Over/Under Total: 39.5
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The Tennessee Titans have surprised a lot of folks with their resurgence so far this season, but this week we’ll get a great idea of just how far they have come when they take on the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC clash at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.
That is, if the Steelers are healthy enough to field a team this Sunday.
The Titans have won three straight since losing their season opener, including an impressive 31-13 victory over the Cleveland Browns on the road last weekend. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was efficient on offense despite only running 50 plays, and the Titans defense ran back an interception for a score to help move the team to 3-1 on the season.
Pittsburgh was beat up last week in Houston, literally, as they not only lost a hard-fought game, 17-10, but lost several big name players to injury in the process on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sprained his foot and is in a walking boot but listed as probable, but running back Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Titans. On defense, former player of the year James Harrison broke an orbital bone in his face and is out indefinitely, joining CB Bryant McFadden (hamstring) and ends Aaron Smith (foot) and Brett Keisel (knee) as the Steelers walking wounded.
The Steelers are so dinged up at this stage of the season that the oddsmakers waited until Wednesday before releasing a point spread for this game. Once they read the injury report from practice on Tuesday and Wednesday the set the opening number with Pittsburgh as 3.5-point favorites. The number has dropped to 3-points at most of the sportsbooks on the Web, but you can still find a few of them listed at 3.5 both offshore and in Las Vegas.
The over/under total opened at 40 and has since dropped to 39.5 at most sportsbooks. There are even a few 39s on the board at a few books, in case you want to drop the hook and open up a chance at getting a push on your over/under bet.
When you think of Tennessee and Pittsburgh on offense you almost automatically think of power running attacks. That couldn’t be further from reality this season.
With a decent offensive line and one of the NFL’s fastest and most explosive running backs in Chris Johnson, there’s absolutely no reason why the Titans are 31st in the league in running the ball this season (66.8 ypg). Hasselbeck and the Titans passing game has picked up the slack (280.5 ypg – 8th), but sooner or later you know it’s going to catch up to them.
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The Steelers are also struggling to get the running game established this season, averaging just 93.8 yards a game for a mediocre 21st rank thus far. As a result Roethlisberger has taken a beating, the offensive line that is playing several backups already is struggling and the Steelers just aren’t scoring enough points to win (16 ppg – 27th).
But of course the reason both of these teams are still alive in their respective division is because of defense.
Tennessee is top-10 across the board, including 7th overall (299.8 ypg), 8th against the run (87 ypg) and pass (212 ypg) and a NFL-best average of 14 points per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is top-10 in most of the defensive categories, including 5th in points allowed (18 ppg), 2nd overall (277 ypg) and 1st against the pass (157.5 ypg). The one super surprising stat is that the Steelers are getting run on this season, allowing 119.5 yards per game on the ground, including a 155 yard game by Texan Arian Foster last week. Johnson and the Titans might not be able to take advantage of that since they have their own issues, but you can bet that when they look at the Steelers pass defense numbers they’ll likely give it a good try.
These two teams have met three times the past three seasons, with Pittsburgh scoring a slim, 19-11, victory over the Titans in Nashville last September. In 2009 it took overtime for the Steelers to beat the Titans at home in Heinz, 13-10. Over the years this series has been even, both on the scoreboard (5-5 SU) and at the betting window (Pitt. 6-4 ATS).
The underdog has owned the series though, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight head-to-head meetings.
The over is also a strong betting trend play, going 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. The over is also 6-1 in the Steelers last seven versus an AFC opponent, and it’s also 7-3 in the Titans last 10 games as an underdog.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know the trend says take the over, but I just don’t see how it can happen. Pittsburgh is at half-staff, and I fully expect the Titans to come back down to earth soon, especially against the Steelers defense. I’m taking the under of 39.5.
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