Houston Texans (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Week 10
November 13th 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: EverBank Field Jacksonville, FL
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texans -1.5
Over/Under Total: 42.5
The Texans have won 2 of their last 3 games and they are atop the AFC South at 5-3 and the only team in the division that has a winning record. Even with J.J Watt out Houston has been playing solid D ranking tied for 11th in the league giving up an average of 20.9 ppg. It is interesting that the Texans are 2 games over .500, but while they allow 20.9 ppg they are only scoring an average of 17/1 ppg, which is 3rd to last in the league.
The Jags have lost 3 in a row and they are in the basement of the AFC South, but they did not play a bad game, well at least on defense, in their last game, which was a 19-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. It is not a shock to see Jax only have 2 wins with a team that ranks 28th in the league in scoring and 25th in opponents’ points allowed.
The Jags blew a golden opportunity for a win in their last game when they outgained the Chiefs 449 yards to 231 yards. The reason they lost was turnovers, as they lost 3 fumbles and had an INT.
While the Texans are at 5-3 all of their wins have come at home. In their last game they played solid D in beating the Detroit Lions 20-13. They were outgained by 20 yards in the game, with only 269 total yards, and they still got the W. QB Brock Osweiler only passed for 186 yards with a TD and a pick and RB Lamar Miller only rushed for 56 yards averaging a less than stellar 3.3 yards per carry. He had over 200 rushing yards combined in his previous 2 games where he averaged over 5.5 yards per carry.
Jacksonville ranks a legit 5th in the league this season defending the pass, but only 20th defending the run. However, they stuffed the run against the Chiefs in their last game holding them to only 62 yards on the ground.
Blake Bortles had a decent game against KC passing for 252 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and RB Chris Ivory got the start in the backfield and rushed for 107 yards. If the Jags can run the ball well they have a solid chance to win, but they cannot cough up the rock 3 times.
Ivory and company will get their touches in this game, as the Houston defense is Jekyll and Hyde. They are the top ranked D in the league when it comes to pass defense, but only rank 26th in run defense. They did hold the Lions to only 52 rushing yards, but the Lions do not have a legit ground game.
Bortles has had to carry the Jags’ offense for most of the season and has had to do so with a decent, at best, WR corps. Still, they need to establish the run and not turn the ball over. In the 2 wins by the Jags this season Bortles does not have an INT and in the 6 losses he has been picked in every game.
The Texans have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Also, the road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these division rivals.
The Texans have yet top win on the road this season and it sounds strange to say, but I am going with the Jags in this game. They will run the ball, play solid D, and Bortles will play well. Jacksonville will not only cover in this game, but also win snapping their 3-game skid and keeping Houston winless on the road.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Jaguars +1.5
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