Tennessee Titans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS, DTV: 706
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TEN +3.5/MIA -3.5
Over/Under Total: 43
This isn’t a pretty matchup. Both the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and this week were ranked 28th and 31st respectively in the NFL Power Rankings. Neither are serious contenders, but at least one seems to be competing on a regular basis, and that’s the Titans.
Last week the Titans hit the road and gave the Houston Texans a run for their money until they suffered some special team woes (Bobby April was subsequently fired as special teams assistant and Steve Hoffman, a 26-year coaching veteran, will take his place). Right now, the Titans’ strength is in their run game, which ranks 4th in the league averaging 127 yards per game (YPG). They average 221 passing YPG, which puts them 27th in the league, while their overall offense sits 18th averaging 348 total YPG.
Defensively, the Titans are ranked 14th in the league holding opponents to an average of 350.8 total YPG (240.8 passing YPG; 110 rushing YPG) and 21 points per game (PPG). On the flip side, the Dolphins they’re 28th allowing an unacceptable 401.8 total YPG (272 passing YPG; 129.8 rushing YPG) and 22.2 PPG.
Things aren’t much better for the Fins on the other side of the ball. Their offense is a lowly 26th averaging just 329.8 total YPG. That includes the fourth-worst (29th) rushing game averaging 77.8 YPG, and 17th-ranked passing game averaging 252 YPG.
The Dolphins have so many problems it’s not even funny. The only player on the team showing any production is wide receiver Jarvis Landry, who has caught 31 receptions for 375 yards (12.1 Avg) and a touchdown. Only A.J. Green has caught more passes (32) in the NFL through Week 4. If you watched the Dolphins against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week, then you saw how pitiful they truly are. Outside of one 74-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter, the team played uninspired football. Even the commentators had a hard time hiding their disdain from viewers.
Both of these teams are young and full of talent. The big difference is the Titans are making it work – due in no small part to DeMarco Murray’s resurgence with 66 rushes for 340 yards (5.2 Avg) and three touchdowns – while the Dolphins cannot seem to gel and are unraveling.
Chad Holloway's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Miami has one of the worst run defenses in the league, and that bodes well for Murray. The ground and pound ought to open things up for quarterback Marcus Mariota, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see wide receiver Rishard Matthews, who was never really given a chance in his first four years in the league with the Dolphins, have a big game against his former team. I’m officially out of faith for the Fins until they give me a reason to believe they’re capable of winning. I like the Titans and expect they’ll win again against the Dolphins, probably by a similar score as last year (21-10).
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