Betting NFL Totals
by Predictem.com Staff
If we had to pick out a handful of articles that we suggested our readers take a gander at, this article about betting NFL totals would surely be one of them.
There are so many reasons to bet the over or under, but let's start with the most important reason. Because it's the easiest form of sports betting to beat! Don't believe us? Then why do you think the bookies put such low limits on totals wagers? Uh huh. You guessed it, their limiting their exposure and liability to sharp bettors who study the necessary stats, trends, injuries, weather reports and all the rest of the variables that go into being a winning totals bettor.
Many gamblers are fixated on the point spread. Sure, it's more fun, as nothing is more excruciating betting on an "under" but you have to go where the money is at if your serious about winning at sports betting.
Another reason to bet totals is that the juice is low as is the risk. It's generally a coin flip bet, unlike parlays and teasers where your forced to pick more than one game which decreases your odds of winning.
Despite going out of order here, the second reason and one we really appreciate is that often times there's great value in betting totals without even knowing any information at all! How can this be? Well, NFL football fans are kinda like blondes. Their feeble and trip over their feet at times, especially when it comes to POINTS. Almost everybody loves to see a game with a ton of points scored. The bookies know this. They then have you in a tough spot as your biased to one side of the total, being the over, which allows them to inflate the total a little bit higher sucking the value out of that side of the play.
With the above being said, that's just a rule of thumb, not etched in stone. In a matchup between two hot defensive teams that sport very little offense, bookies know that "Joe Public" is going to figure no offense, great defense, low score. Almost sounds like a caveman algebraic expression. So they adjust the opposite way as well, deflating the total making for an "under" play very difficult to hit while those that have the gonads to bet the over are more likely to cash in.
Are you starting to feel a tone here that bookies put out lines based on public perception? If so, your bright! That's a very true statement. Equal action on both sides? It's a myth. They'd love it if it happened, but it doesn't and their not above putting out lines to intentionally fool you. Many sports bettors call these "trap games." It could also be said that "if it looks too good to be true it probably is!"
If you witness such a line, odd or spread, BET THE OTHER WAY! Fade your first instinct and gut feeling and watch your online sports betting account get fat real quick. Play with the bookie, not against him. If he sucks you in with a sucker line, get on his side and bet against it. This is golden advice as it took us years to figure that out.
Something we forgot to mention above is that the inflated "over" lines are often times inflated more-so on nationally televised games where the book expects to get a ton of action.
Lastly, before you bet NFL totals, you may want to check wagerline.com to see how the rest of the general betting public is playing the totals. You do not want to be on the same side as them, especially if their one siding the heck out of a game.
For those of you who have read this article and still don't know what the hell a total is, let us explain.
Each week, oddsmakers put out a point spread and a "total" on all NFL games. The spread is relative to a team having to win by a certain amount of points or be able to lose by a certain amount of points or win straight up. (See: NFL Point Spreads for more info)
Totals, or "over/unders" allow bettors to wager on the total amount of points scored by both teams combined. The bookie posts a "total" and you make a pick based on whether you think the total points scored by both teams goes over or under the posted total.
We always suggest that an under bet should first be considered, however not all games go under so you need to pick your spots. An astute NFL handicapper can hit 60%+ year in and year out only betting totals. Just a little something to think about.
Preseason Picks - Many don't realize that there's good value in NFL preseason picks! They claim "how can you bet on a game when you don't know who is going to play?" Truth be told, many head coaches tell you how much playing time key players will receive prior to the game!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.