Betting NFL Totals
by Predictem.com Staff
If we had to pick out a handful of articles that we suggested our readers take a gander at, this article about betting NFL totals would surely be one of them.
There are so many reasons to bet the over or under, but let's start with the most important reason. Because it's the easiest form of sports betting to beat! Don't believe us? Then why do you think the bookies put such low limits on totals wagers? Uh huh. You guessed it, their limiting their exposure and liability to sharp bettors who study the necessary stats, trends, injuries, weather reports and all the rest of the variables that go into being a winning totals bettor.
Many gamblers are fixated on the point spread. Sure, it's more fun, as nothing is more excruciating betting on an "under" but you have to go where the money is at if your serious about winning at sports betting.
Another reason to bet totals is that the juice is low as is the risk. It's generally a coin flip bet, unlike parlays and teasers where your forced to pick more than one game which decreases your odds of winning.
Despite going out of order here, the second reason and one we really appreciate is that often times there's great value in betting totals without even knowing any information at all! How can this be? Well, NFL football fans are kinda like blondes. Their feeble and trip over their feet at times, especially when it comes to POINTS. Almost everybody loves to see a game with a ton of points scored. The bookies know this. They then have you in a tough spot as your biased to one side of the total, being the over, which allows them to inflate the total a little bit higher sucking the value out of that side of the play.
With the above being said, that's just a rule of thumb, not etched in stone. In a matchup between two hot defensive teams that sport very little offense, bookies know that "Joe Public" is going to figure no offense, great defense, low score. Almost sounds like a caveman algebraic expression. So they adjust the opposite way as well, deflating the total making for an "under" play very difficult to hit while those that have the gonads to bet the over are more likely to cash in.
Are you starting to feel a tone here that bookies put out lines based on public perception? If so, your bright! That's a very true statement. Equal action on both sides? It's a myth. They'd love it if it happened, but it doesn't and their not above putting out lines to intentionally fool you. Many sports bettors call these "trap games." It could also be said that "if it looks too good to be true it probably is!"
If you witness such a line, odd or spread, BET THE OTHER WAY! Fade your first instinct and gut feeling and watch your online sports betting account get fat real quick. Play with the bookie, not against him. If he sucks you in with a sucker line, get on his side and bet against it. This is golden advice as it took us years to figure that out.
Something we forgot to mention above is that the inflated "over" lines are often times inflated more-so on nationally televised games where the book expects to get a ton of action.
Lastly, before you bet NFL totals, you may want to check wagerline.com to see how the rest of the general betting public is playing the totals. You do not want to be on the same side as them, especially if their one siding the heck out of a game.
For those of you who have read this article and still don't know what the hell a total is, let us explain.
Each week, oddsmakers put out a point spread and a "total" on all NFL games. The spread is relative to a team having to win by a certain amount of points or be able to lose by a certain amount of points or win straight up. (See: NFL Point Spreads for more info)
Totals, or "over/unders" allow bettors to wager on the total amount of points scored by both teams combined. The bookie posts a "total" and you make a pick based on whether you think the total points scored by both teams goes over or under the posted total.
We always suggest that an under bet should first be considered, however not all games go under so you need to pick your spots. An astute NFL handicapper can hit 60%+ year in and year out only betting totals. Just a little something to think about.
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