Each week during the NFL football season we'll post trends that SOUND like they make a game look like it's a winner. We actually fade (go against) these trends though because it's our opinion that what happened in the past is no indication of what will happen in the future and too much weight is put into these "trends".
There's an old saying "let the trend be your friend" but it's B.S. How can you put much weight into something that includes info from years, past, many times from many years past when different players and coaches were around? Nonetheless, we'll sift through it all and post any decent angles and situational stats we can find relative to past trends. Look for these trends to be posted by late Friday afternoon each week during the Pro football season. Enjoy!
For more great trends and NFL information check out ArmChairAnalysis.com.
Week 1: (9/9 through 9/13) To be announced by Friday prior to Week 1's games!
Prior Year's Picks and Records
Super Bowl Trends: (2/7)
1. The New Orleans Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. (Take New Orleans at +5)(win)
2. The Over is 49-23-2 in Saints last 74 vs. a team with a winning record. (Take the UNDER 56.5)(win)
Previous Week's Trends:
Conference Championships Weekend: (1/24)
1. The Minnesota Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC. (Take the Saints -3.5)(loss)
2. The Under is 21-5 in Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. (Take OVER 52)(win)
Divisional Playoffs Weekend: (1/16 and 1/17)
1. The Arizona Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. (Take the Saints -7)(win)
2. The Dallas Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. (Take Minnesota -2.5)(win)
3. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Vikings last 5 Divisional Playoffs games. (Take UNDER 45.5)(win)
Wildcard Weekend: (1/10)
1. We will not be releasing any trend plays during wildcard weekend.
Week 17: (1/3)
1. The New York Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17. (Take Minnesota -9)(win)
2. The Indianapolis Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. (Take Buffalo -9)(win)
3. The San Diego Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. (Take Washington +3.5)(win)
Week 16: Passing.
Week 15: (12/17 through 12/21)
1. The Green Bay Packers Packers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. (Take Pittsburgh -3)(loss)
2. The Chicago Bears are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 15. (Take Baltimore -11)(win)
3. The New York Giants are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games.
(Take Washington +3)(loss)
Week 14: (12/10 through 12/13)
1. The New York Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. (Take TB +4)(loss)
2. The New England Patriots are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
(Take Carolina +13 (win)
3. The Green Bay Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. (Take Chicago +4 (loss)
4. The San Diego Chargers are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. (Take Dallas -3.5)(loss)
Week 13: (12/3 through 12/6)
1. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (Take Atlanta +5)(loss)
2. Vikings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. (Take Arizona +3.5 (win)
3. Titans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
(Take Indy -6)(win)
Week 12: (11/26/09 through 11/30/09)
1. The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. (Take St. Louis +4)(loss)
2. The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. (Take Washington +9.5)(win)
3. The Indianapolis Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. (Take Houston +3)(loss)
4. The Tennessee Titans are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. (Take Arizona +2)(loss)
5. The New England Patriots are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. (Take New Orleans -1.5)(win)
Week 11: (11/22/09 through 11/23/09)
1. The Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. (Take TB +10.5)(loss)
2. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 11. (Take KC +10.5)(win)
3. The SF 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. (Take GB -6 (push)
4. The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. (Take Oakland +9)(win)
5. The St. Louis Rams are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. (Take St. Louis +9.5)(win)
Week 10: (11/12/09 through 11/16/09)
1. The Washington Redskins are 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. (Take Washington +3.5)(win)
2. The Under is 13-3 in Bills last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. (Take OVER 41)(win)
3. The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. (Take Pittsburgh at -7)(win)
4. The Dallas Cowboys are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in November. (Take Green Bay +3)(win)
5. The SD Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. (Take Philly +1)(loss)
Week 9: (11/8/09 through 11/9/09)
1. The Green Bay are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite. (Take TB at +9.5)(win)
2. The Baltimore Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win. (Take Cinci +3)(win)
3. The Detroit Lions are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. (Take Detroit +10)(loss)
4. The Denver Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games. (Take Denver +3)(loss)
5. The Tennessee Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. (Take Tennessee +4)(win)
Week 8: (11/1/09 through 11/2/09)
1.The SF 49ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. (Take SF +13)(win)
2. The St. Louis Rams are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. (Take STL +4)(win)
3. The Denver Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. (Take Baltimore -3.5)(win)
4. The Tennessee Titans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. (Take Jacksonville +3)(loss)
5. The Minnesota Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. (Take GB -3)(loss)
Week 7: (10/25/09 through 10/26/09)
1. The Green Bay Packers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games. (Take Cleveland +9.5)(loss)
2. The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. (Take Pitt -6)(win)
3. The Over is 20-6 in Cardinals last 26 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. (Take UNDER 46)(win)
Week 6: (10/18/09 through 10/19/09) These plays did very well last week going 4-0. We look to keep it rolling in Week 6!
1. The Carolina Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
(Take TB +3)(loss)
2. The Green Bay Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC North.
(Take Detroit +14)(loss)
3. The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 games in October.
(Take Cinci -5)(loss).
Week 5: (10/11/09 through 10/12/09) Coming off an uneventful 2-2 last week. These WILL turn around soon!
1. The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. (Take the Chiefs at +7.5) (win)
2. The Carolina Panthers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. (Take Washington +4)(win)
3. The Seattle Seahawks are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October. (Take Seattle -1.5)(win)
4. The New England Patriots are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October. (Take Denver +3)(win)
Week 4: (10/4/09 through 10/5/09) The trend plays have been holding true through the first few weeks of the 2009 season. Fading these has proven to be absolutely brutal. Unbelievable.
1. The Washington Redskins are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Take Washington -9)(loss)
2. The New York Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. (Take KC +9)(loss)
3. The Buffalo Bills are 25-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. (Take Miami +1)(win)
4. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. (Take Denver +3)(win)
Week 3: (9/27/09 through 9/28/09)
1. The New England Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. (Take Atlanta +4.5)(loss)
2. The Green Bay Packers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
(Take STL +6.5 (loss)
3. The Seattle Seahawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. (Take Seattle +2.5)(loss)
4. The New Orleans Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. (Take Buffalo +6)(loss)
Week 2: (9/20/09 through 9/21/09)
1. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. (Take KC -3)(loss)
2. The New England are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. (Take NYJ +3.5)(win)
3. The New Orleans Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. (Take Philly +1)(loss)
4. The SF 49ers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NFC. (Take SF -1)(win)
5. The Miami Dolphins are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. (Take Miami +3)(loss)
Week 1: (9/10/09 through 9/14/09)
1: The New Orleans Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. (Take Detroit +13)(loss)
2: The Houston Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. (Take Houston -4.5)(loss)
3: The Cleveland Browns are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. (Take Clevleand +4)(loss)
4: The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
(Take KC +13)(loss)
5: The New York Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. (Take Washington +6.5)(win)
6. The San Diego Over is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games in September.
(Take UNDER 43)(loss)
Preseason NFL Picks - Often times NFL coaches reveal their game strategy (prior to the game) as well as who they plan on playing and for how long. This can result in easy money. We'll post these picks here as we get them.
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