Minnesota Vikings (4-0, 3-1 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4, 1-3 ATS), Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Sunday, Oct. 11th, 1 PM Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Vikings -10/Rams +10
Over/Under: 39
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Coming off a big Monday night home win over a hated divisional rival, the undefeated Minnesota Vikings travel to St. Louis this week to take on the winless and punchless Rams Sunday afternoon.
Some of the various Vegas sportsbooks opened this game Tuesday with Minnesota favored by 10 points, with a total of 39 or 40. But as of Tuesday night many online NFL betting outlets were still holding off on lining this game.
The Brett Favre era in Minnesota has started nicely. The Vikings opened the season with wins at Cleveland and Detroit, and they covered the pointspread both games, as four- and ten-point road favorites. Minnesota then received a minor miracle, courtesy of Favre and WR Greg Lewis, in their season home opener to beat San Francisco at the buzzer 27-24, although they couldn't cash in as seven-point home faves.
Then Monday night in the big revenger for No. 4 at home vs. Green Bay, and as a big public pick, the Vikings beat the Packers 30-23, and covered the spread as 4 1/2-point chalk. Minnesota actually got outgained and outrushed by Green Bay, but Favre and DE Jared Allen went crazy, and the Vikes got a big divisional win.
In their first season under new head coach Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have opened with four straight losses. St. Louis got shut out in Seattle in the season opener, scored seven points in losing at Washington, got beat at home by Green Bay 36-17 and, last week, got shut out again, this time at San Francisco.
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St. Louis held the 49ers to just 228 yards of offense Sunday, but managed just 177 yards of their own. And while the final score indicates a blowout, San Fran scored three defensive touchdowns.
Through the first quarter of this NFL season, the Rams rank 30th in the league in offense at 257 YPG, 13th in rushing at 112 YPG, 19th in defense at 360 YPG and 24th vs. the run at 135 YPG.
Marc Bulger began the season as the starter at QB for St. Louis, but he hurt his shoulder in the first half of the Green Bay game, and hasn't been back since. He's listed as questionable for Sunday's game. His replacement, former Baltimore starter Kyle Boller, has looked like a back-up, completing 29 of 55 passes for a 4.9 YPA margin, which is poor, two touchdowns, two interceptions and a 63.6 rating.
The other QB in this game hasn't looked too bad for a guy who turns 40 years old Saturday. Favre has completed 68% of his throws this season for a 6.6 YPA average, eight TDs and just one INT, and a solid 103.8 rating.
The Vikings rank 19th in the league in offense at 322 YPG, 10th in rushing at 124 YPG, 10th in total defense at 301 YPG and 9th vs. the run at 90 YPG.
Minnesota also ranks 9th in the league in average time-of-possession at 31:42, while St. Louis ranks 22nd at 28:02.
In playing two common opponents already this season, the Vikings outgained the Niners and Packers by a 711-670 margin, while the Rams got outgained by GB and SF 630-513.
These two teams haven't met in a game that counted since the last week of the 2006 season, when St. Louis, quarterbacked by Bulger, pounded Minnesota, QB'd by Tarvaris Jackson, 41-21 as 2 1/2-point road chalk at the Metrodome.
The Vikings are 3-1 on the totals so far this season, as their games have averaged 49.5 points.
The totals are 1-3 in Rams games this year, which have averaged just 33 points.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com currently rank the Vikings 5th in the league at 25.5, the Rams dead last at 6.4. Sagarin's updated NFL home-field advantage figure is 3.2. (Although the Rams hfa may be negative 14 lol)
NFL home dogs are 6-14 straight up and 8-12 vs. the numbers so far this season. And NFL double-digit favorites are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS.
Z-Man's Pick: Well, seeing as though the Rams have been hard pressed to score early on, I can't really make a case for them until they figure out how to move the ball. I absolutely hate laying points and even moreso on the road, but it's very likely that the Vikings win this game 28-10 or by an even larger margin.
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