Washington Redskins (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-5 SU 4-2 ATS) Week 7 NFL Football, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC, 1 PM ET Sunday October 23, 2011 on FOX
by Jason Green, NFL Handicapper Predictem.com
Point Spread: WASH +2.5/CAR -2.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
Make the Skins a +22.5 underdog by placing them into a 20 point football teaser at 5Dimes.
The Redskins and their solid start came to a screeching halt with last week's home loss to the Eagles and head coach Mike Shanahan said he would tab the starting QB on Wednesday. Rex Grossman had 4 picks in the Philly loss and John Beck came in the game in the 2nd half and led the Skins to the only TD they scored in the game. Grossman has the league's 2nd to last QB rating and Beck is an unproven commodity. Yeah, tough call.
Last Sunday the Redskins lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 20-13 and the Panthers lost to the Atlanta Falcons 31-17.
Carolina QB Cam Newton has played well this season, but it has not translated to wins. He has been exciting, but he has thrown more picks (9) than TD (7) and was picked off last week 3 times and did not throw a TD. I don't look for him to have a great game passing the ball facing a Redskins' pass defense that ranks 9th in the league and held Michael Vick to 230 yards and picked him off twice. The league's 2nd leading WR Steve Smith will be held in check this game for the 2nd straight week.
Besides the 4 interceptions the other main reason the Skins' lost last week is that they could not stop the run. They allowed 192 rushing yards and Vick scrambled for 54 yards and since Newton in the Panthers' 2nd leading rusher he will take some shots with his legs. DeAngelo Williams is the leading rusher for the Panthers and he will improve on last week's performance in Atlanta where he only rushed for 44 yards averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
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The Redskins will get back to playing better defense in this game and while Newton will, once again, put up good passing yardage numbers turnovers will kill him. He and Williams will put up decent rushing numbers, but not great ones facing a Redskins' defense that has something to prove after last week.
It does not matter who is under center for the Redskins, as it is simple since they have to run the ball better than they did last week when they had a grand total of 42 rushing yards. Look for Ryan Torrain to get back on track facing a Carolina rushing defense that ranks 31st in the league. Last week the Panthers gave up 166 rushing yards to the Falcons.
The Skins will look to establish the run early in this game and they will have to do so and not get down early, as Grossman or Beck are not the guys you want under center when you have to make a comeback. Just look at last week.
Not only do the Skins have a QB issue, as well as a defensive ones, but they have a few guys injured with G Kory Lichtensteiger and TE Chris Cooley out for this game and LT Trent Williams nursing a severely sprained left ankle and is questionable for this Sunday's game.
Betting Trends
Washington is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and they have an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.
Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, but only 2-7 in their last 9 games facing a team with a winning record, and has an Over record of 5-1-2 in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
The Redskins have covered the spread in their last 4 games facing the Panthers.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Washington has covered the spread in their last 4 games on the road and that trend will continue this Sunday. The Redskins will be able to establish the run early and they will play good defense, unlike last week, and show the NFL they are a playoff contender. The Washington D is legit and they will forget about last week and play well on that side of the ball this Sunday afternoon. Take Washington getting 2.5 points.
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