Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview and Pick

Washington Redskins (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 3 NFL, Monday, September 26, 2011, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas, TV: ESPN
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Wash OFF/Dal OFF
Over/Under Total: OFF

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One of the best rivalries in the NFL will strap it up for another rendition in primetime this week when the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys battle for early bragging rights in the NFC East when the two meet in Cowboys Stadium on Monday Night Football.

The rivalry should have an extra level of intensity on Monday Night too, thanks to the way both teams scored huge come-from-behind victories last Sunday.

The Redskins did just about everything within their power to self-destruct and give away the game to the Arizona Cardinals, with two interceptions a blocked field goal being part of the problem that caused them to stall out time and time again despite gaining 455 yards of total offense. But with the game on the line Rex Grossman rallied the Skins for a 73-yard scoring drive and a 48-yard game-winning drive that ended with a 34-yard field goal by Graham Gano to give the Redskins a heart-stopping victory over the Cardinals, 22-21.

But as impressive as the Redskins comeback was on Sunday, the Cowboys took it a notch higher with their, 27-24, overtime victory on the road at San Francisco. Quarterback Tony Romo played the final quarter with a fractured rib and pierced lung, but still rallied the Cowboys on a game-tying drive at the end of regulation and then set up kicker Dan Bailey’s game-winning 19-yard field goal with a 77-yard completion on the Cowboys first play of overtime.

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Romo wasn’t the only Cowboys offensive player to get dinged up and play inspired football either, as running back Felix Jones hurt his shoulder and was in and out of the lineup. Receiver Miles Austin also re-aggravated his hamstring injury during his three-touchdown day, and he’s likely out for a few weeks.

With all of the injury issues surrounding the Cowboys, oddsmakers have yet to release a point spread for Monday Night’s game. The early word out of Dallas is that Romo’s status will depend on how much pain the quarterback can tolerate, but both Romo and his coach Jason Garrett have stated publicly that they expect him to be able to play.

The over/under total is also still off the board until more news is released about the status of all of the injured Cowboys.

The Cowboys are a completely different team on offense without Romo behind center. Backup Jon Kitna played almost the entire third quarter while Romo was waiting for his pain medication to kick in, and the results were less than pretty, as he threw for 87 yards and a score but he also threw two drive-killing interceptions.

If Romo is unable to go it will certainly hurt the Cowboys game plan, because with a revamped offensive line they have yet to establish any kind of running game in their first two games (54.5 ypg – 31st), which will put heaps of pressure on Kitna to try and force things downfield.

When the Redskins have the ball the focus is on quarterback Rex Grossman and which QB will show up, the one that played well in the opener (305 yards, 2 TD, 110.5 QB rating), or the one that struggled for 50 minutes in game two (2 INT, 74.9 QB rating) and looked like the old Rex that has been sitting on the bench for the past four seasons.

If the Skins can keep Grossman under control and get a running game going against the Cowboys early (Wash. averages 123 ypg – 10th), the Washington defense is strong enough to keep them in the game until late just like they did in week two. The problem is that the Dallas defense is also strong enough, including a stout run defense that has only allowed 59.5 yards per game so far (2nd in NFL), so that might turn into a tall task for Grossman and the Redskins.

The recent history between these two teams is fairly even on the field, as the Cowboys own a 6-4 SU advantage over the last 10 games (back to 2006). But if you look at the series from a betting perspective, the Redskins hold a strong 7-3 ATS advantage over those same 10 games, including a cover in both of the games last season.

In fact, the Redskins have a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four trips to Dallas in the rivalry. But that betting trend is part of a larger trend that favors the visiting team, since the road team is 5-1 ATS going back six games.

Last year’s game in Dallas was a shootout, with the Cowboys winning 33-30 in late December. But the Redskins covered in that game as 9.5-point underdogs and the game went way over the closing total of 43.5.

The underdog could be barking this week too, since the underdog is an impressive 21-6 ATS in the head-to-head series in the last 27 meetings.

At first glance the under wager looks like a valuable play this week, since the under is 4-1 in their last five get togethers. But that trend doesn’t seem to hold up in Dallas, where it’s actually the over that is 3-1-1 in the last five meeting between these two in the Lone Star State.

Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The line isn't out yet due to the status of Romo and others. Check back before the game on Monday to see if there’s a play on this game.

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