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Arsenal vs. Burnley Prediction

Arsenal vs. Burnley and Pick to Win
Date:Sunday, October 2nd 2016
Where: English Premier League – Burnley, UK
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem

Match Odds: Arsenal 2/5, Burnely 9/1, Draw 41/10
Moneyline: Arsenal -400, Burnley +900, Draw +410
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 3.5 21/11 (+190)

Arsenal has been on a tear as of late as they are 5-0-1 in their last six fixtures and have won their last four in a row, most recently a 2-0 defeat of Basel in Champions League play. Arsenal has also meandered near the top of the English Premier League table for most of the 2016/17 campaign and their offensive exploits have finally matched by some defensive proficiency. For Burnley, the Yorkshire-based football club is also entering on a high note as they recently defeated Greater London’s Watford in a 2-0 victory, last week in league play. This contest sets up for the prototypical David vs. Goliath match-up and while the oddsmakers have continuously furthered this narrative with no relent, the general public has fed heartily in to this storyline in their own right. A substantial sample of the populous have jumped in on the Gunners laying the juice in what appears to be a sure-fire win for the North London team.

In addition to namesake alone, many takers on this market may peer at the results yielded by both outfits against common opponents. The differences are heavily contrasting. For the Gunners, they squashed Chelsea 3-0 and smashed Hull City 4-1. For Burnley, a draw would do the trick against cross-shire rival Hull City in a 1-1 stalemate and they would summarily be routed by Chelsea 0-3. These outcomes further feed the narrative of Arsenal having a walk in the park in this game. However, the Gunners historically have been prone to upsets especially when they are on the road. The Gunners do not typically fare to well away from Emirates Stadium and this has been the reason why they have failed to capitalize on winning the English Premier League even when the best teams have had down years.

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Last year Arsenal had to resort to some theatrics and haberdashery to escape the now-relegated Newcastle United 1-0 on the road in St. James’ Park. Simply put, calls went in Arsenal’s favor and much of the Magpies supporters felt they were robbed of what could have been a stunning defeat. Nevertheless, this is what may once again be the situation that unfolds in Yorkshire as no one expects Burnley to be within three goals of this team. Nevertheless, the price here dictates the play. Last week Bournemouth entered in a similar situation against Everton at home and Bournemouth would beat the Toffees outright despite Everton having a great propensity in light of their recent success and second place position in the English Premier League table.

We are not proponents of laying juice, we are more about finding value in a potential live pooch. Given the stocks of both teams in this situation, Burnley has an opportunity to be a great steal at the price offered here. The tendency that almost always accompanies any heavy favorite is that once their price hits a premium with heavy steam, they fail to produce the desired result when it matters most. This is not always the case but Arsenal is a prime suspect in creating such a situation. As stated, no one expects Burnley to be relevant in this contest and the odds the book are offering reflect this. Nevertheless, stranger things have happened and given the fact we can score nearly 9 units off of risking 1, those are far more friendlier terms than risking 5 for 2 on Arsenal. In the event this fixture gets out of hand, we have substantial upside in taking the OVER 3.5 as Arsenal has the firepower to bleed this one open if the route is on. If this game turns in to a high-scoring thriller, we have the potential to net 10.9 units while risking 2 units in the process, thus our play.

Arsenal Recent Form
W – Basel 2-0
W – Chelsea 3-0
W – Nottingham Forest 4-0
W – Hull City 4-1
D – Paris Saint-Germain

Burnley Recent Form
W – Watford 2-0
L – Leicester City 0-3
D – Hull City 1-1
L – Chelsea 0-3
L– Addington Forest 0-1

Keith's Prediction for the Game: Burnley 9/1 (+900) and OVER 3.5 21/11 (+190)

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