Austria vs. Ireland and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, November 12th 2016
Where: International European Fixture
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds:Austria +105, Ireland +300, Draw +23/10
Moneyline: Austria 21/20, Ireland 3/1, Draw 23/10
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 3.5 18/5 (+360)
The International Break is under way and thus many of the world’s premier soccer leagues are on a temporary hiatus and reprieve to make way for European soccer. Many of these fixtures featured are nothing more than friendlies to keep teams in good form as they prepare for qualification. Just a few months removed from the EURO 2016 tournament, national teams are getting themselves together and primed for another run at the continent’s most coveted prize. With this being said, two qualified teams are looking to chop their teeth a bit more after contrasting campaigns in the tournament. For Ireland, the Irish look to build upon success which got them in to the Round of 16, a position many enthusiasts would not fathom nor imagine. For Austria, they look to look at where things went wrong and evaluate ways they can fare better in the next tournament. Austria was a favorite to win their group outside of tournament winner Portugal, yet the Austrians finished in the basement of their group as the sole team eliminated from moving forth to the next round. Austria came undone after they lost to the unfathomable group winner Hungary in the opening fixture of the EURO for the Austrians.
Hungary was valued at 350:1 to win their group, while Austria was offered at just 2:1. This narrative is the most poignant piece to assess this market post-EURO tournament. Austria was are forecasted with a 175-times better chance to win the group outright yet Hungary won the group and Austria was relegated. This unfolding is a plotline the Austrians hope to forget and they have the personnel to do just that against an Irish team that lacks firepower in the scoring department.
Although it is months later, the results of the EURO combined with this narration creates an urgent and smothering pressure for the Austrians and the venue couldn’t be worse for them to rebound against an overachiever in the same tournament they struggled at. On the contrary, Ireland despite their overachievement will enter this contest loose and lathered up as they are forecasted as the least likely to win the game and thus again are playing with a high ceiling for them. It is safe to anticipate the Irish will enter this fixture with eagerness, treating it as a premier match with the hopes of playing at a level much higher than commonly associated with their brand and technique of soccer.
Ireland’s loose approach will likely give them a competitive edge but nevertheless they don’t have the offense to really force the issue with the Austrians. Austria had difficulty finding ways to score as they were blanked against Iceland, Portugal and Hungary in the EURO Tournament. Ireland’s normally physical and robust defense could create trouble for a team like Austria that relies on a finesse approach to win possession and generate opportunities. However recent events would suggest otherwise. Furthermore, in almost any betting situation, when there is a chance you can take a team at EVENS or with juice that there is more equity in laying that option be that the ROI is greater on a lower percentage of success. Austria is not a team that is a 50/50 proposition to win against a team like Ireland therefore it is likely that they are overvalued. In this distinct scenario, the price is certainly affable to play on Ireland but we will stay conservative and go with the draw. Both these teams have been on a scoring spree as of late and thus the OVER 3.5 market offers tremendous upside as this game may remain tied in dead-lock by virtue of both team’s abilities in finding the back of the net most recently. Ireland will not be afraid of Austria by any means, this is a team that beat Italy and went toe-to-toe with France before being eliminated from the EURO tournament earlier this summer.
Austria Recent Form
L – Serbia 2-3
D –Wales 2-2 W – Georgia 2-1
L – Iceland 1-2
D - Portugal 0-0
Ireland Recent Form
W – Maldova 3-1
W – Georgia 1-0
D – Serbia 2-2
W – Oman 4-0
L – France 1-2
Keith's Prediction for the Game: DRAW 23/10 (+230) and OVER 18/5 (+360)
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