Barcelona vs. Real Madrid - Copa Del Rey Final, Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Spain 3:30 PM EST Wednesday April 20, 2011
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Match Odds: Barcelona 1.88 / Real Madrid 3.70 / Draw 3.60
Over/Under: 2.5 goals (Over 1.70 / Under 2.00)
Moneyline: Barcelona -113 / Real Madrid +270 / Draw +260
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Barcelona is 8-points clear of Real Madrid in Spain's La Liga, so it looks as if they will win yet another title, but there is a lot of soccer to play before this season ends. First Wednesday night they face each other in the final of the Copa Del Rey and what is even bigger than that is they will face each other in a dream semifinal match up in the Champions League.
These 2 teams faced each other in El Clasico on Saturday with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. Real may have some confidence coming away from that home match, as they were humiliated 5-0 at Barcelona earlier this season. The winner of this Copa del Rey final match will have a great advantage before Los Clasicos in the Champions League's semifinals.
Real was a little lucky to come away from their home match this last weekend with a draw coming back from a 1-0 deficit with only 10 men. In this match they must take advantage of their scoring chances and they must get off to a better start, as in the first 20 minutes of the 1-1 draw Barca had a ball possession advantage of 81%. Overall, Barca dominated the time of possession 76% to 24% and if that happens again they will not come out with a draw they will lose.
Real Madrid played pretty good defense against Lionel Messi, who leads all goal-scorers in La Liga. They will have to do so again with the likes of Pepe and Sergio Ramos. The leveling goal from Cristiano Ronaldo late in the match also pulled the superstar even with Messi for goals scored in the league.
On the other side of the field Barcelona star defender Carles Puyol had to leave the match because of injury and he will likely miss this Copa Del Rey final.
Not only are these 2 teams 1-2 in the league standings, but Barcelona ranks first in the league in both goals scored and goals allowed and Real Madrid ranks 2nd in both as well.
Barcelona Recent Form
4/16/2011 Real Madrid 1 Barcelona 1 (La Liga)
4/12/2011 Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Barcelona 1 (Champions League)
4/9/2011 Barcelona 3 Almeria 1 (La Liga)
4/6/2011 Barcelona 5 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 (Champions League)
4/2/2011 Villarreal 0 Barcelona 1 (La Liga)
Real Madrid
4/16/2011 Real Madrid 1 Barcelona 1 (La Liga)
4/13/2011 Tottenham 0 Real Madrid 1 (Champions League)
4/9/2011 Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Madrid 3 (La Liga)
4/5/2011 Real Madrid 4 Tottenham 0 (Champions League)
4/2/2011 Real Madrid 0 Sporting Gijon 1 (La Liga)
Emmanuel Adebayor and Cristiano Ronaldo will have to pressure the Barcelona defense, especially early in the match.
Barcelona played better than Real Madrid on Saturday night and this is especially the case in the midfield. The Real midfielders have to disrupt the flowing playing style of Barca and if they can do that they have a much better chance to win. They may do this again by being very physical like they did this last weekend committing 22 fouls. MF Xavi is key for Barca, as Real cannot allow him to push forward and feed Messi and the forwards.
Messi will be keyed on this game again, but he had a few scoring chances in the Saturday match and buried the penalty. Still, I think he will score in this game, as he comes up big when it really counts.
Jason's Pick to Win: Barcelona will come out and play well right from the get-go, as they want to not only win this cup, but gain some confidence heading into the Champions League. Messi will score at least one goal, while Barcelona will also play great defense and not allow Real to score and their slick passing will cause major problems for Real. I see Barcelona winning this game by a score of 1-0 or 2-0.
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