Bordeaux vs. Lyon and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, September 10th 2016
Where: France – Ligue One
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Bordeaux 22/5, Draw 3/1, Lyon 8/11
Moneyline: Bordeaux +440, Draw +300, Lyon -137
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 3.5 2/1 (+200)
With all the hype surrounding the English Premier League and the Bundesliga, France’s Ligue One often features some contests that filled to the brim with drama and abundant value from a betting perspective. Nothing typifies that narrative more than the offering we have here with Lyon playing host to Bordeaux. Both Bordeaux and Lyon have played three games in their Ligue One schedule and both teams have gathered six points sitting in the second position of the League Table. Although Lyon comes in off a loss against Dijon who have just three points, they are heavily favored at home playing host to visiting Bordeaux who come in off a win against Nantes.
For Lyon they come at a -137 equivalent odds by the American system. In other words, this team requires substantial juice. While also pondering the metrics, it is worth highlighting that this team has 95% of the money on them in some books, showcasing a heavy propensity from the public to back the French side as we mentioned with a loss to Dijon, a football team that certainly does not cause many teams to shake in their sleep. Furthermore, beating up on Caen and Nancy does not by any means gather attention. Lyon’s true colors were shown when they were mangled by Paris Saint-Germain falling 4-1. It is worth highlighting that between both sides in their previous six contests each, only one team has found themselves in a draw on one occasion. With this being said, results are likely the definitive expectation with a small sample of the betting population in on the draw. From a contrarian angle, this would be the ideal team to back the stalemate.
Bordeaux is offered at a tempting price of 22/5 but we understand that this outfit is a long shot for a reason and thus we won’t bite the bait. Nevertheless, this is the same Bordeaux bunch that has won two and lost just one in their last three fixtures. Incidentally, that one draw we just mentioned? It was Bordeaux and they forced a 1-1 deadlock with the league’s best team, a European power Paris Saint-Germain. The litmus test for us is Lyon’s contrasting result against Paris Saint-Germain compared to Bordeaux. Yet with even the friendly return offered on this club, there is no money on Bordeaux. Taking Bordeaux outright is quite tempting but given the fact both Bordeaux and Lyon have forced results positive or negative, we like our angle of the draw in this contest better. Let’s call what it is as well, Bordeaux and Lyon are both off to good starts, a draw only furthers their cause and gives them more reason to live to fight another day. A draw allows both teams to jostle for positioning in the early going without risking any setbacks that are calamitous.
Both teams like to score yet they have a propensity to let up goals as well. In their last six games, both Bordeaux and Lyon have two clean sheets a piece. Conversely, Lyon has let up four or more goals in two of their last six outings. Lyon also enjoys scoring as they have scored as much as six goals against Monaco, a team currently sitting at the top of the Ligue One table. As for Bordeaux, they have found ways to produce and scored in every game in their last six. With this being said, it is hard to imagine either team staying off the board and given the fact we can take back 2/1 odds on just four total goals in the game, this can be a very profitable venture. Bottom line if Bordeaux and Lyon get started early, it is not hard to fathom this game resulting in a 2-2 draw. Even if Lyon were to win this game, four goals still gains us unit even if the heavy favorite pulls off the W with all the public on them. This can potentially be an excellent free-roll situation.
Bordeaux Recent Form
W – Nantes 1-0
L – Tolouse 1-4
W – St. Etinenne 3-2
L – Caen 0-1
D – Paris Saint-Germain 1-1
Lyon Recent Form
L – Dijon 2-4
W – Caen 2-0
W – Nancy 3-0
L – Paris Saint-Germain 1-4
L– Reims 1-4
Keith's Prediction for the Game: Draw 3/1 (+300) and OVER 3.5 2/1 (+200)
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