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Handicapping

Everton vs. Arsenal Pick

Everton vs. Arsenal and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, February 3rd, 2018
Where: English Premier League – Emirates Stadium – Highbury, Greater London, UK
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem

Match Odds: Everton 21/2, Arsenal 1/3, Draw 49/10
Moneyline: Everton +1050, Arsenal -300, Draw +490
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 2.5 5/4 (+125)

Two traditional heavyweights of the English Premier League will clash this weekend in a high-profile contest with positioning implications on the line. The Gunners of Arsenal by way of Highbury will welcome an old friend from North West when the Toffees of Everton come to London by way of Liverpool in a clash of Premiership powers. The two teams enter on contrasting notes. Arsenal has clawed their way into the top sixth of the table winning their last two. Arsenal is looking to get back in to Champions League play after missing a bid the 2016-17 campaign. The Gunners are in the Europa League and boast winning the FA Cup last season. The Gunners have been a force to be reckoned with in the FA Cup but the Gunners are looking for trophies of more prestige. Arsenal comes into the contest with 45 points, losing in a shocker to Swansea City after compiling three consecutive wins. Previous to this, two consecutive victories were earned against cross-city rivals Crystal Palace and Chelsea in successive outings.

The story surrounding Arsenal is forward Alexis Sanchez moving onto Manchester United and heading up North. Despite the speculation and the fanfare surrounding the recent transaction, Arsenal’s offense held serve in a North London Derby with Chelsea and cross-Thames clash with Crystal Palace. The Gunners managed to score six goals whilst conceding just two. The resultant good form for Arsenal has driven the stock of this outfit back to heights we would normally see the Gunners positioned at regardless of the Swansea defeat. When you couple in the fact, Arsenal is at home the propensity is now even greater. The Gunners are in a prime position to pick up what appears to be a quick three points. After all, they are facing an Everton side that has dropped four of their last six outings whilst going winless in all of these matches. Generally speaking, such positions often set up takers for a let-down especially if it looks like a bounce-back game. The spot is one that causes many to chase the favorite and as a result overpay to back them.

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It is safe to assess that the Evertonians have hit a very rough patch as of late. Most recently, the Toffees drew lowly West Bromwich Albion 1-1. Previous to this, Everton lost consecutive outings against Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, and Bournemouth. The first three could easily be written off due to the fact they are facing premium competition hovering in the top tier of the table. However, the Bournemouth loss is one that plummets the verity of this outfit and activates the sell button. Everton is typically a team that we see hanging in the top ten of the table or perhaps as high as the upper third. Presently, Everton is clinging to ninth place with 28 points just two points ahead of Watford. As mentioned these variables could lead Arsenal to finding themselves in a trap. The fixture looks too easy and as a result the proposition despite the heavy juice seems like quick money.

Buying low and selling high is a practice that we champion. Situationally, this contest sets up to be one where we can take advantage of an inflated market. Whilst we will not be overzealous and play Everton outright, a draw is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Given the fact we can bank +475 off of a $100 proposition as opposed to laying $300 to make $100, the $775 swing just makes sense. If Everton wishes to escape with a point, they will need to stop Arsenal from finding the back of the net. With the implementation of a physical defense, there is no reason to suggest they cannot do so. Arsenal has escaped a few matches by their offense alone. Therefore, the Under 2.5 offers plenty of equity as it will coincide with our tip and offer a favorable return.

Everton Recent Form
D – West Bromwich Albion 1-1
L– Tottenham Hotspur 0-4
L – Liverpool 1-2
L – Manchester United 0-2
L– Bournemouth 1-2

Arsenal Recent Form
L – Swansea City 1-3
W – Chelsea 2-1
W – Crystal Palace 4-1
L – Bournemouth 1-2
D – Chelsea 0-0

Keith's Prediction for the Game:DRAW 49/10 (+490) and UNDER 2.5 5/4 (+125)

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