France vs Germany and Pick to Win
Date:Thursday, July 7, 2016
Where: EURO 2016 – Semifinals – Marseille, France
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: France 9/4, Germany 39/19, Draw 21/10
Moneyline: France +250, Germany +205, Draw +210
Over/Under Best Market: NO PLAY
The hosts versus the World Champs, a soccer rivalry for all the ages is set to be in the grandest stage of Europe, as Germany meets France in a renewal of a storied rivalry. The epic clash will take place with France coming in off an impressive 5-2 thumping of upstart Iceland. Germany enters by way of a hard-fought win against Italy where both teams scored once and required penalties to determine a victor. Italy had many misfortunes in their shooting, yet Germany could only win the penalties by a score of 5-4 overall.
Germany to win is the most favored option of the three, but staying clear of both France and Germany is the most prudential move. Why? Because the ceiling for both teams are at their peaks. France continues to roll and the emphatic style they fostered against Iceland was a punctuation point. Had France struggled at all, they may have been offered at odds greater than 3:1 to win this fixture. However, they are the hot play and many speculate that home field advantage will take effect in this fixture as France has been looking for redemption against Germany in tournaments of this consequence for some time now.
For Germany, their record may in fact be dubious given the fact they have not won a signature win over a key opponent in this tournament. Germany struggled against Italy and Poland, two teams that qualified for the quarterfinals. Outside of these two opponents, the Germans made snacks of teams like Slovakia and Ukraine but that hasn’t raised any eyebrows. For Germany, France will likely be their greatest test in this tournament but the same can be said about the other side regarding their opponent, Germany.
This contest has all the makings of a classic and it should be a titanic clash between two European heavyweights. This contest will likely be a prototypical Germany/France collision. Both sides have some excellent talent to showcase. Most notably for France the combination of Dimitri Payet, Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann anchor a ferocious French attack that cause many German supporters to hold their breath. Respectively, Germany has weapons of their own. Most notably, Mesut Ozil a talented Arsenal midfielder that has mastered distribution and played a quintessential role in Germany’s possession-style of football. Germany is methodical and their approach is academic. France is all about scoring and doing things with glitz and glamour. As a result, the two sides are very contrasting which makes this contest even more riveting to watch. With Portugal or Wales awaiting the winner in the Final on Sunday, we expect these two teams throw all their chips down on this contest and treat this one as a championship. The border rivalry element of this contest fuels the narrative and fanfare ever further. Nonetheless, we anticipate this contest will likely need extra time to settle the difference. Given all three options on the board, the draw is most economical because Germany has been involved in several draws and have no fear of extending this one out of regulation. For France, they may play hard but this one may also require extra time for them to get rid of the German pest as they have won two fixtures in stoppage team against weaker opponents in group play.
Despite this fixture having all the makings to be a high-scoring outing, we will lay that opinion and go for a conservative viewpoint. Typically we don’t like juice but for less than a standard vig we can take back an Under 2, meaning in essence we get 1 goal to play with. However, it is likely both teams will score and given the fact the only friendly markets are on scoreless draws or high-octane shootouts we will likely stay off under and over markets entirely for this one.
France Recent Form
W- Iceland 5-2 (Quarterfinals)
W – Ireland 2-1 (Round of Sixteen)
D – Switzerland 0-0 (Group)
W – Albania 2-0 (Group)
W – Romania 2-1 (Group)
W – Scotland 3-0 (Friendly)
Germany Recent Form
W – Italy 1-1 (PEN) – (Quarterfinals)
W – Slovakia 3-0 (Round of Sixteen)
W – Northern Ireland 1-0 (Group)
D – Poland 0-0 (Group)
W – Ukraine 2-0 (Group)
Keith's Prediction for the Game: Draw 21/10
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