France vs Portugal and Pick to Win
Date:Sunday, June 10, 2016
Where: EURO 2016 Finals Stade de France Saint Denis, France
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: France 21/20, Portugal 15/4, Draw 11/5
Moneyline: France +105, Portugal +375, Draw +220
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 2.5 23/13 (+175)
Be that the EURO tournament is due to commence with an exclamation point, we are simply going to go ahead and back the sentimental favorite in this contest, the host France. While this may seem atypical, there is an angle worth taking in to consideration here: the sports world usually always get what it wants.
France winning the EURO as hosts would feed the media machine of fanfare and climax for ages. The media loves stories and the tale of France galvanizing the world on the biggest stage of world soccer would be a feel-good story for the masses. Objectively, this is actually an angle worth betting on and the propensity towards France in this fixture is offset by the fair odds. We cant tell you who are we are rooting for but it would certainly be a just and delightful event for France to be champions and with that being said we will go ahead and take them not for sentimental reasons but due to their opponent, Portugal.
Portugal has not looked impressive overall in this tournament and their run to the final is very bombastic when you consider the teams they have knocked off in route. This is a squad that could barely survive their group and did not win a game against Austria, Iceland or Hungary. In fact against the Hungarians, Portugal had to equalize on two separate occasions to avoid a loss. How would the Portuguese follow this up? Surviving two extra time thrillers against both Croatia and Poland, teams that Portugal should have likely beaten handily. Portugal only began to look impressive when they took down the Cinderella of the EURO, Wales in the semifinals. However, Portugal once again lucked out be that they did not have to encounter Belgium or even run in to Spain in the round of sixteen had the Spanish won against Croatia in group play. The clock is about to strike midnight for Portugal and the crown prince of this tournament France has the ideal situation to capitalize.
France has gained a multitude of respect after their 2-0 defeat of Germany. The French knocked off a world champion that seemingly they could not get free of. Over the course of this tournament, we have laid France vehemently and cited their troubles against teams that are inferior to them in quality including Ireland, Albania and Romania. However, France has appeared to hit their stride in their last two fixtures, outscoring opponents 7-2. We like their chances against a Portugal team that is very inconsistent in their offensive play.
Given the fact this is a rare venue to steal France at an affable wage, we will go ahead and dive in. France has required a great amount of juice all throughout this tournament. Finding them offered in this position after they just defeated a defending World Champion convincingly offers abundant value. Even if France loses this game outright (which is very unlikely), there is still more value in taking a host favorite above evens than going for a Portuguese team that is offered at a deceptively charming price of over 3.5/1. We will stay clear of the draw be that it is likely that France will try to win this one in regulation and do so convincingly.
France will likely keep scoring after they have average 3.5 goals in their previous two fixtures. This team will likely find the back of the net twice and given the fact we only need to rely on the French for one more goal or Portugal to mark, we can get a great price on an OVER 2.5 which is extremely feasible. Again, predicting over/under markets are difficult in soccer betting but we will always try to find value in the numbers and stay clear of juice in unpredictable markets like this one. We are going back on this play at enhanced odds.
France Recent Form
W Germany 2-0 (Semifinals)
W Iceland 5-2 (Quarterfinals)
W Ireland 2-1 (Round of Sixteen)
D Switzerland 0-0 (Group)
W Albania 2-0 (Group)
Portugal Recent Form
W Wales 2-0 (Semifinals)
W Poland 1-1 PEN (Quarterfinals)
W Croatia 2-1 (Round of Sixteen)
D Hungary 2-2 (Group)
D Austria 0-0 (Group)
Keith's Prediction for the Game: France 21/20 (+105)
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