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Germany vs. Italy Prediction

Germany vs. Italy and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, July 2, 2016
Where: EURO 2016 – Quarterfinals – Bordeaux, France
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem

Match Odds: Germany 6/5, Italy 13/4, Draw 21/10
Moneyline: Germany +120, Italy +325, Draw +210
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 1.5 14/9 (+155)

This one has all the makings to live up to be an instant classic as the world will bear witness to a primetime collision between two European heavyweights who have won two of the previous three World Cups. The defending World Champions Germany will square off with Italy in what will certainly be the match of the weekend and premiere fixture in this quarterfinals stage.

Germany enters erasing much doubt after they mollywopped Slovakia 3-0 in their Round of Sixteen fixture. The Germans had struggled mightily against Slovakia in particular as they had lost to Slovakia 3-1 in an international friendly just before the EURO kicked off. Heightened skepticism has been put to the rest as the Germans made an example out of the Slovakians and sent them off in dominant fashion.

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Nevertheless even with Germany securing seven points in group play and dominating Slovakia, many pundits and plaudits alike are unsure if Germany can achieve success against Italy. While there is no fundamental reason to believe such things, the German draw against Poland coupled with a 1-0 victory of Northern Ireland led many to believe that Germany may be in for a rude awakening against an Italian side that owns victories over Belgium and Spain in this very tournament. Some have personified Italy has a bit of a giant slayer and a team that is on a mission to vie for European supremacy. From many alternative angles, this can simply be dubbed as an overreaction. In the revelry of Italy’s wins against Belgium and Spain, let us not overlook Italy’s loss to Ireland where the Irish blanked Italy 1-0.

The argument for this result of course, is that Italy had already won Group E and had bigger fish to fry in preparation for what had awaited them. Some may articulate the point that Italy was simply looking ahead to Spain or Croatia and were not concerned about Ireland at the given time with respect to the scenario at hand. One again we will not buy in to that narrative. The lack of faith in Germany and the emphatic response to Italy’s impressive win over Spain is reflected directly in this market. Germany does not require the insane amount of juice they normally do. With respect to the fact this is a defending World Champion that has yet to lose in this tournament, we will buy that stock every time if it is offered at an affable wage.

Deceptively, the Italy price may seem to be a treat for any taker. However, this price may be in fact a trick. Italy is a household name that many takers are familiar with. Casual betters may fancy a play on Italy alone by virtue of the superlative “you get what you pay for” and with this being established, a premium is often assessed. This may be one of the few times you can get Italy at true market value and even then it is to be seen if the market is actually sneaking in some juice through the backdoor off of anticipated overreactions. On some days, it would not be shocking to imagine Germany as a below-evens favorite with Italy taking back odds greater than 4:1.

Nevertheless, as we have stated previously, we are getting a quality side that has all types of credentials to back up their name. This is still Germany’s tournament to lose. Italy still has to navigate a gauntlet of competition as the winner will likely face France to go to the big dance. For Germany, this will be another day at the office. This is a team that is fresher off of games of consequence and have a system that backs up all the heraldry. Like we said, we are getting a defending World Champion at above even odds, we will take that every time.

Do not be shocked if this game is settled in a penalty shootout as Germany and Italy have no problem playing this one at an arm’s length given possession is their forte. We will go ahead and be bold, taking the under at 1.5 for a ROI of 1.55 units banking on this contest being settled by one goal or less.

Germany Recent Form
W – Slovakia 3-0 (Round of Sixteen)
W – Northern Ireland 1-0 (Group)
D – Poland 0-0 (Group)
W – Ukraine 2-0 (Group)
W – Hungary 2-0 (Friendly)

Italy Recent Form
W – Spain 2-0 (Round of Sixteen)
L – Republic of Ireland 0-1 (Group)
W – Sweden 1-0 (Group)
W – Belgium 2-0 (Group)
W – Finland 2-0 (Friendly)

Keith's Prediction for the Game: Germany 6/5 (+120)

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